Abstract A utility tunnel typically houses various types of urban lifelines. As one of the assembled pipelines in a utility tunnel, the sewer pipeline is of great importance for city life. For example, leakage of toxic and combustible gases and a subsequent explosion can result in severe accidents. The potential hazards in the sewer pipeline compartment of a utility tunnel are greatly different from those in traditional directly buried sewer pipelines. In this study, a risk assessment method based on a Bayesian network (BN) and Dempster-Shafer (D-S) Evidence theory was developed to evaluate complicated sewer pipeline accidents in a utility tunnel. First, potential hazards and typical accident scenarios were identified based on case studies of sewer pipeline accidents and evaluated by experts. Then, a BN-based risk assessment framework for the sewer pipeline in a utility tunnel was established. Using the proposed model, BN inferences of sewer pipeline accident scenarios were conducted. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis (SA) was conducted to identify the critical threats of the sewer pipeline in a utility tunnel. The proposed risk assessment framework can help to prevent and mitigate sewer pipeline accidents in utility tunnels.

中文翻译：

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基于贝叶斯网络的地下综合管廊下水管道风险评估模型

摘要 综合管廊通常容纳各种类型的城市生命线。下水管道作为综合管廊中的组装管道之一，对城市生活具有重要意义。例如，有毒和可燃气体泄漏以及随后的爆炸可能导致严重事故。综合管廊下水管道隔间的潜在危害与传统直埋下水管道有很大不同。在这项研究中，开发了一种基于贝叶斯网络 (BN) 和 Dempster-Shafer (DS) 证据理论的风险评估方法来评估综合管廊中复杂的下水道管道事故。首先，基于污水管道事故案例研究，确定潜在危害和典型事故场景，并由专家进行评估。然后，建立了基于 BN 的综合管廊下水管道风险评估框架。使用所提出的模型，进行了下水道管道事故场景的 BN 推断。此外，还进行了敏感性分析 (SA) 以识别多功能隧道中下水道管道的关键威胁。拟议的风险评估框架有助于预防和减轻公用隧道中的污水管道事故。