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Urban agglomeration ecological risk transfer model based on Bayesian and ecological network
Resources, Conservation and Recycling ( IF 13.2 ) Pub Date : 2020-06-22 , DOI: 10.1016/j.resconrec.2020.105006
Wen Zhang , Gengyuan Liu , Zhifeng Yang

Urban ecological risk thinking and policies should address larger-scale and consider urban dependence and impacts on distant populations and ecosystems. In urban agglomeration perspective, some researchers examined the spatial heterogeneous distribution of ecological risk at different cities, but ignored the interaction effect between two cities. In this study, a Bayesian and Ecological Network model is used to simulate the ecological risk transfer process between two cities under (1) air pollution transmission pathway, (2) water pollution transmission pathway and (3) economic trade transmission pathway, and to test the ecological risk promotion degree after considering the risk transferring from other cities. Ecosystem services are adopted as the assessment endpoint of ecological risk. Taking the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration as an example, the results show that, without considering the risk transferring in the urban agglomeration, the top three high risk cities are Dongguan, Zhongshan and Shenzhen. Risk transferring between two cities greatly increases the urban comprehensive risk probabilities, especially in Zhaoqing (134% increase rate), Zhuhai (73.0%) and Guangzhou (70.4%). Guangzhou and Shenzhen are both disseminators and victims of ecological risks in urban agglomerations. The Bayesian and ecological network model can support the decision-making process used for ecological risk prevention and ecosystem services improvement.



中文翻译:

基于贝叶斯和生态网络的城市群生态风险转移模型

城市生态风险思想和政策应涉及更大范围,并考虑城市依赖性以及对远距离人口和生态系统的影响。从城市群的角度看,一些研究者考察了不同城市的生态风险在空间上的异质分布,但却忽略了两个城市之间的相互作用。本研究采用贝叶斯生态网络模型来模拟两个城市在(1)空气污染传播途径,(2)水污染传播途径和(3)经济贸易传播途径下的生态风险转移过程,并进行测试考虑到其他城市的风险转移后的生态风险提升程度。生态系统服务被用作生态风险评估的终点。以珠江三角洲城市群为例,结果表明,在不考虑城市群风险转移的情况下,排名前三位的高风险城市是东莞,中山和深圳。两座城市之间的风险转移大大提高了城市的综合风险概率,尤其是肇庆(增长134%),珠海(73.0%)和广州(70.4%)。广州和深圳既是城市群的传播者,也是生态风险的受害者。贝叶斯和生态网络模型可以支持用于生态风险预防和生态系统服务改善的决策过程。两座城市之间的风险转移大大提高了城市的综合风险概率,尤其是肇庆(增长134%),珠海(73.0%)和广州(70.4%)。广州和深圳既是城市群的传播者,也是生态风险的受害者。贝叶斯和生态网络模型可以支持用于生态风险预防和生态系统服务改善的决策过程。两座城市之间的风险转移大大提高了城市的综合风险概率,尤其是肇庆(增长134%),珠海(73.0%)和广州(70.4%)。广州和深圳既是城市群的传播者,也是生态风险的受害者。贝叶斯和生态网络模型可以支持用于生态风险预防和生态系统服务改善的决策过程。

更新日期:2020-06-22
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