This paper critiques the conservation and economic claims advanced by the captive predator breeding industry in South Africa. It contends that captive lion breeding offers no direct conservation value. Similarly, claims of economic significance and indirect conservation value are tenuous in light of the potential opportunity costs that the industry generates, which remain largely unquantified. Therefore, a new type of cost-benefit analysis (CBA) method is required for quantifying the potential reputation damage and opportunity costs associated with the industry. One element of the industry’s supply chain worth examining in this regard is predator interaction with tourists. This paper estimates that total gross revenue for the sub-sector is estimated at roughly $180 million per annum. These revenues represent a mere 0,96% of tourism’s total GDP contribution in 2019 ($18.8 million) but may entail extensive opportunity costs. Moreover, if the land currently supporting the interaction sector were joined up to create a number of more integrated wilderness landscapes, the total land area that could be transformed would be in the region of 160,000 hectares. Used for non-consumptive ecotourism, this could yield 960 direct jobs. Finally, the paper estimates that the potential net present value of the reputation damage being wrought on South Africa’s critical tourism sector through the industry is $2.79 billion (discounted at 5% over the next decade).

本文对南非圈养捕食者繁殖产业提出的保护和经济主张提出了批评。它认为圈养狮子繁殖没有直接的保护价值。同样，鉴于该行业产生的潜在机会成本，具有经济意义和间接保护价值的主张是微不足道的，而这些成本在很大程度上尚未量化。因此，需要一种新型的成本效益分析（CBA）方法来量化与行业相关的潜在声誉损失和机会成本。在这方面值得研究的行业供应链要素之一是掠食者与游客的互动。本文估计，该子行业的总收入每年估计约为1.8亿美元。这些收入仅占0，2019年旅游业对国内生产总值的贡献为96％（1880万美元），但可能需要大量的机会成本。此外，如果将目前支持互动领域的土地合并起来，以创建更多更综合的荒野景观，那么可以转变的土地总面积将在16万公顷左右。用于非消费性生态旅游，可创造960个直接工作。最后，该论文估计，通过该行业对南非的关键旅游业造成的声誉损害的潜在净现值为27.9亿美元（在未来十年内折让5％）。可以改造的土地总面积约为160,000公顷。用于非消费性生态旅游，可产生960个直接工作。最后，该论文估计，通过该行业对南非的关键旅游业造成的声誉损害的潜在净现值为27.9亿美元（在未来十年内折让5％）。可以改造的土地总面积约为160,000公顷。用于非消费性生态旅游，可产生960个直接工作。最后，该论文估计，通过该行业对南非的关键旅游业造成的声誉损害的潜在净现值为27.9亿美元（在未来十年内折让5％）。