Abstract

The paper proposes a model for predicting the integral daily fluxes (fluences) of relativistic electrons (RE) (E > 2 MeV) of the Earth's outer radiation belt in a geostationary orbit using images of the Sun in the ultraviolet range. The results show that the accuracy of the forecast of the RE fluxes three or four days ahead increases significantly when adding the predicted values of solar wind speed at the Earth’s orbit, obtained by processing images of the Sun in the UV range from AIA instrument, SDO Observatory, to the input parameters of the forecasting model.

中文翻译：

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基于太阳日冕洞观测的机器学习方法对地静止轨道相对论电子通量的中期预测

摘要

本文提出了一个模型，该模型使用太阳在紫外线范围内的图像来预测地球静止轨道上地球外辐射带的相对论电子（RE）（E > 2 MeV）的每日日通量（通量）。结果表明，通过对AIA仪器SDO的紫外线范围内的太阳图像进行处理获得的结果加上地球轨道上太阳风速的预测值后，未来三到四天的RE通量预测的准确性将显着提高。天文台，输入预测模型的参数。