Tropical cyclone (TC) “Fani” (April 26–May 04, 2019) over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) is the first extreme severe cyclonic storm (ESCS) of the season that struck Puri coast with a maximum sustained wind speed of 110 knots. In the past 130 years, TC Fani is the first of its kind with the peculiarity of being persistent with the intensity of severe cyclonic storm (SCS) over land for more than 24 h, thus causing substantial casualties in the major cities of Odisha. Two high-resolution mesoscale modeling systems, (1) state-of-the-art advanced research version of weather research and forecasting (WRF-ARW) model with a single fixed domain (9 km horizontal resolution) and (2) TC specific hurricane WRF (HWRF) with three domains (27/9/3 km horizontal resolution) are used for real-time prediction of Fani in quasi-operational setup. Storms surge prediction is also carried out using IIT Delhi dynamical storm surge model. Both the models, WRF and HWRF, were able to predict the system from its genesis stage (5 days in advance of landfall) with reasonable accuracy in position and strength. The tracks from both models are in good agreement with the observed track. The average track errors for WRF and HWRF are 101 km and 85 km, respectively. The landfall time and position are well predicted, with 60 h of lead time. HWRF model performance in predicting landfall time, position, and intensity is significant. Along with the statistical analysis, structural and vertical analysis of wind, enthalpy flux, and thermal distribution are carried out by considering two represented initial conditions from both WRF and HWRF models. Maximum reflectivity and precipitable water diagnostic studies depict that both the models show asymmetricity at the peak intensity of ESCS. The rainfall during the landfall day from both the models is comparable with the gauge-satellite merged observed rainfall datasets. Along with TC track, intensity, and structural forecasts associated with storm surge at different vulnerable coastal cities are attempted to predict with reasonable accuracy.

中文翻译：

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使用高分辨率中尺度模型对孟加拉湾上空特强气旋风暴法尼进行准业务预报指导

孟加拉湾 (BoB) 上空的热带气旋 (TC)“Fani”（2019 年 4 月 26 日至 5 月 4 日）是本季第一次以最大持续风速 110 级的持续风速袭击普里海岸的极端强气旋风暴 (ESCS)结。在过去的 130 年里，TC Fani 是第一个以强气旋风暴 (SCS) 强度在陆地上持续超过 24 小时的特殊性，从而在奥里萨邦的主要城市造成了大量人员伤亡。两个高分辨率中尺度建模系统，(1) 具有单个固定域（水平分辨率为 9 公里）的天气研究和预报 (WRF-ARW) 模型的最先进的高级研究版本和 (2) TC 特定飓风具有三个域（水平分辨率为 27/9/3 公里）的 WRF (HWRF) 用于在准操作设置中实时预测 Fani。风暴潮预测也使用 IIT 德里动态风暴潮模型进行。WRF 和 HWRF 这两个模型都能够从系统的起源阶段（登陆前 5 天）以合理的位置和强度预测系统。两个模型的轨迹与观察到的轨迹非常吻合。WRF 和 HWRF 的平均轨道误差分别为 101 公里和 85 公里。登陆时间和位置预测良好，提前期为 60 小时。HWRF 模型在预测登陆时间、位置和强度方面的性能很重要。除了统计分析外，还通过考虑来自 WRF 和 HWRF 模型的两个代表初始条件来进行风、焓通量和热分布的结构和垂直分析。最大反射率和可沉淀水诊断研究表明，这两种模型在 ESCS 的峰值强度处均表现出不对称性。两个模型的登陆日降雨量与测量卫星合并观测降雨数据集相当。与 TC 轨迹、强度和与不同脆弱沿海城市风暴潮相关的结构预测一起，试图以合理的准确度进行预测。