The aim of this research was to explore at what age professional tennis players at different ranking levels (top 10, 11-20, 21–50, 51–100, 101–200, 201–300) started playing tennis and had achieved their career ranking milestones, and to explore the viability of using age and ranking to predict a player’s future success. 373 top 300 ranked professional tennis players from 2010 to 2018, including 193 females (M = 32.3, SD = 3.5) and 180 males (M = 34.0, SD = 3.1) were examined. Descriptive methods and univariate analyses were used to compare player developmental trajectories by player peak ranking levels. Discriminant analyses were applied to explore to what extent age and early ranking milestones can be used to predict a player’s future peak rankings. Results revealed that there were no significant differences regarding the age at which players started playing tennis by players’ career peak ranking levels. Results showed that 75% of the top 300 players started playing tennis between the ages of 3 to 7 years, whilst 21% started between 7 to 10 years, and 4% started later between 10 to 13 years. Results further showed that professional rankings between 14 and 18 years were not reliable in predicting a player’s future ranking. Closer analyses revealed that age and early rankings have a relatively high value in “predicting” the ranking of higher-ranked (e.g., top 10) and lower-ranked (e.g., top 201–300) players, but not middle-ranked players (i.e. top 11–200), with nearly 60% of them not correctly classified and the top 51–100 ranked players having the lowest predictability.

中文翻译：

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预测精英成功：比较前 10 到 300 名职业网球运动员的职业道路的证据

本研究的目的是探索不同排名级别（前 10、11-20、21-50、51-100、101-200、201-300）的职业网球运动员开始打网球并取得职业生涯的年龄排名里程碑，并探索使用年龄和排名来预测玩家未来成功的可行性。对2010年至2018年排名前300位的职业网球运动员373名，其中女性193人（M=32.3，SD=3.5）和男性180人（M=34.0，SD=3.1）。描述性方法和单变量分析被用来按玩家最高排名水平比较玩家的发展轨迹。应用判别分析来探索在多大程度上可以使用年龄和早期排名里程碑来预测玩家未来的最高排名。结果显示，球员的职业生涯最高排名水平在球员开始打网球的年龄方面没有显着差异。结果显示，前 300 名球员中有 75% 在 3 至 7 岁之间开始打网球，而 21% 在 7 至 10 岁之间开始打网球，4% 在 10 至 13 岁之间开始打网球。结果进一步表明，14 至 18 岁之间的职业排名在预测球员未来排名方面并不可靠。更仔细的分析表明，年龄和早期排名在“预测”排名较高（例如，前 10 名）和较低排名（例如，前 201-300 名）球员的排名方面具有相对较高的价值，但对中级球员的排名则不然。即前 11-200 名），其中近 60% 未正确分类，排名前 51-100 名的玩家的可预测性最低。