An important element of the Convention on Biological Diversity’s Aichi Target 15 – i.e. to enhance “ecosystem resilience … through conservation and restoration” – remains largely unaddressed by existing indicators. We here develop an indicator addressing just one of many possible dimensions of ecosystem resilience, by focusing on the capacity of ecosystems to retain biological diversity in the face of ongoing, and uncertain, climate change. The Bioclimatic Ecosystem Resilience Index (BERI) assesses the extent to which a given spatial configuration of natural habitat will promote or hinder climate-induced shifts in biological distributions. The approach uses existing global modelling of spatial turnover in species composition within three broad biological groups (plants, invertebrates and vertebrates) to scale projected changes in composition under a plausible range of climate scenarios. These projections serve as filters through which to analyse the configuration of habitat observed at a given point in time (e.g. for a particular year) – represented as a grid in which cells are scored in terms of habitat condition. BERI is then calculated, for each cell in this grid, as a function of the connectedness of that cell to areas of natural habitat in the surrounding landscape which are projected to support a similar composition of species under climate change to that currently associated with the focal cell. All analyses are performed at 30-arcsecond grid resolution (approximately 1 km cells at the equator). Results can then be aggregated to report on status and trends for any desired set of reporting units – e.g. ecoregions, countries, or ecosystem types. We present example outputs for the Moist Tropical Forest Biome, based on a habitat-condition time series derived from the Global Forest Change dataset. We also describe how BERI is now being extended to cover all biomes (forest and non-forest) across the entire terrestrial surface of the planet.

现有指标在很大程度上未解决《生物多样性公约》爱知指标15的一项重要内容，即提高“……通过保护和恢复的生态系统复原力”。在这里，我们着重研究生态系统在面对不断变化和不确定的气候变化时保持生物多样性的能力，从而仅解决生态系统复原力的许多可能方面之一。生物气候生态系统复原力指数（BERI）评估了给定的自然栖息地空间配置将在多大程度上促进或阻碍气候导致的生物分布变化。该方法使用现有的全球模型，对三个广泛的生物类别（植物，无脊椎动物和脊椎动物），以在可能的气候情景范围内缩放预计的成分变化。这些投影充当过滤器，通过这些过滤器可以分析在给定时间点（例如，特定年份）观察到的栖息地配置-表示为网格，其中根据栖息地条件对细胞进行评分。然后，针对该网格中的每个单元，计算该单元与周围景观中自然栖息地区域之间的连通性的函数，预计该区域将支持气候变化下与当前与该物种相关的物种相似的物种组成细胞。所有分析均以30秒的网格分辨率（在赤道处约1 km的像元处）进行。然后可以汇总结果以报告任何所需报告单位集的状态和趋势-例如 生态区，国家或生态系统类型。我们根据全球森林变化数据集的栖息地条件时间序列，给出了潮湿热带森林生物群落的示例输出。我们还将描述BERI现在如何扩展到覆盖地球整个陆地表面的所有生物群落（森林和非森林）。