Abstract In Mediterranean-climate regions, irrigated agriculture is especially vulnerable to the risk of hydrological drought, and irrigators are particularly concerned about the negative effects of water supply failures. This paper proposes a new index-based drought insurance scheme to cover the risk of water supply failures in irrigated agriculture that overcomes the problems currently hindering the development of this kind of insurance, especially those related to arbitrariness in annual water allotments decision-making. Although the proposal is tailored to Spain, it can be easily adapted to other countries or regions because its main features can also be implemented worldwide. The scheme proposed is a promising instrument to help irrigators manage the risk related to hydrological droughts since it has been proved to be technically feasible. The main contribution of this paper is the innovative actuarial analysis implemented, which is aimed at calculating fair premiums. Considering that recent changes in the institutional framework (new demands, new storage capacity, and revised basin and drought management plans) make historical records unsuitable for this purpose, the actuarial analysis applied is based on a stochastic hydrological model able to simulate future hydrological situations under updated settings. Simulation results have shown that irrigated agriculture in southern Spain is expected to be more vulnerable to hydrological droughts. In fact, incidence rates are likely to increase because of the new institutional framework, leading to relatively high fair premiums. Only by implementing high ordinary deductibles can the hypothetical cost of commercial premiums be affordable for irrigators, accounting for less than 10% of their current variable costs.

中文翻译：

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西班牙南部灌溉农业的水文干旱保险

摘要 在地中海气候地区，灌溉农业特别容易受到水文干旱风险的影响，灌溉者特别关注供水中断的负面影响。本文提出了一种新的基于指数的干旱保险方案来覆盖灌溉农业供水故障的风险，克服了目前阻碍这种保险发展的问题，特别是与年度水资源分配决策的随意性有关的问题。虽然该提案是为西班牙量身定制的，但它可以很容易地适应其他国家或地区，因为它的主要特点也可以在全球范围内实施。提议的计划是一种很有前途的工具，可以帮助灌溉者管理与水文干旱相关的风险，因为它已被证明在技术上是可行的。本文的主要贡献是实施了创新的精算分析，旨在计算公平保费。考虑到最近制度框架的变化（新的需求、新的蓄水能力以及修订的流域和干旱管理计划）使得历史记录不适合此目的，所应用的精算分析基于能够模拟未来水文情况的随机水文模型。更新的设置。模拟结果表明，西班牙南部的灌溉农业预计更容易受到水文干旱的影响。事实上，由于新的制度框架，发病率可能会增加，从而导致相对较高的公平保费。