Magnetic flux cancellation on the Sun plays a crucial role in determining the way in which the net magnetic flux changes in every solar cycle, affecting the large scale evolution of the coronal magnetic field and heliospheric environment. We have investigated the correlation between the solar magnetic flux cancelled at the equator and the solar magnetic flux transported to the poles by comparing the net amount of magnetic flux in the latitude belt 0 ∘ – 5 ∘ to that of 45 ∘ – 60 ∘ and 55 ∘ – 90 ∘ , using synoptic magnetograms from the National Solar Observatory at Kitt Peak, during Solar Cycles 21 – 24. We find a good correlation between the net flux in the latitude bands 0 ∘ – 5 ∘ and 55 ∘ – 90 ∘ when the net flux for the northern and southern hemispheres are considered together. In addition, we have investigated the correlation between the net flux cancelled at the equator during each cycle and the strength of solar polar field at each cycle minimum and we find a good correlation between the two. We discuss the implication of the correlation between the flux transported across the equator and to the poles, which has an important bearing in the estimation of the residual polar cap field strength at the cycle minimum. This can be used as a predictive tool for estimating the amplitude of subsequent cycles, and we use it to estimate a maximum smoothed sunspot number of 76 ± 5 and 85 ± 5 for the northern and southern hemispheres, respectively, for the upcoming Solar Cycle 25.

中文翻译：

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预测太阳周期的新工具：赤道和两极通量传输之间的相关性

太阳上的磁通量抵消在确定每个太阳周期中净磁通量的变化方式方面起着至关重要的作用，影响日冕磁场和日光层环境的大规模演化。我们通过比较纬度带 0 ∘ – 5 ∘ 与 45 ∘ – 60 ∘ 和 55 的净磁通量，研究了在赤道抵消的太阳磁通量与传输到两极的太阳磁通量之间的相关性∘ – 90 ∘ ，使用来自基特峰国家太阳天文台的天气磁图，在太阳周期 21 – 24。我们发现纬度带 0 ∘ – 5 ∘ 和 55 ∘ – 90 ∘ 中的净通量之间存在良好的相关性，当北半球和南半球的净通量被一起考虑。此外，我们研究了每个周期在赤道上抵消的净通量与每个周期最小值处的太阳极场强度之间的相关性，我们发现两者之间存在良好的相关性。我们讨论了穿过赤道传输到两极的通量之间相关性的含义，这对估计周期最小值处的残余极冠场强具有重要意义。这可以用作估计后续周期幅度的预测工具，我们用它来估计北半球和南半球的最大平滑太阳黑子数分别为 76±5 和 85±5，对于即将到来的太阳周期 25 . 我们讨论了穿过赤道传输到两极的通量之间相关性的含义，这对估计周期最小值处的残余极冠场强具有重要意义。这可以用作估计后续周期振幅的预测工具，我们用它来估计北半球和南半球的最大平滑太阳黑子数分别为 76±5 和 85±5，对于即将到来的太阳周期 25 . 我们讨论了穿过赤道传输到两极的通量之间相关性的含义，这对估计周期最小值处的残余极冠场强具有重要意义。这可以用作估计后续周期幅度的预测工具，我们用它来估计北半球和南半球的最大平滑太阳黑子数分别为 76±5 和 85±5，对于即将到来的太阳周期 25 .