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Assessment of extreme precipitation through climate change indices in Zacatecas, Mexico
Theoretical and Applied Climatology ( IF 3.4 ) Pub Date : 2020-06-16 , DOI: 10.1007/s00704-020-03293-2
Ruperto Ortiz-Gómez , L. Javier Muro-Hernández , Roberto S. Flowers-Cano

Climate change and extreme climate events identified worldwide at the local, regional, and global scales have significant impact on ecosystems and on society. In this study, spatial and temporal changes in extreme precipitation events in north-central Mexico were investigated using daily precipitation data from 29 meteorological stations over a period of 54 years (1961–2014). The extreme precipitation events are described using ten of the indices established by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI), which characterize daily precipitation in terms of intensity, accumulation, and duration. The indices were calculated yearly and seasonally. The annual and seasonal trends of the indices were estimated with the Theil-Sen method, and its statistical significance was tested with the Mann-Kendall test (MK). The regional average indices of annual total precipitation from wet days (PRCPTOT), simple daily intensity (SDII), number of heavy precipitation days (R10), number of very heavy precipitation days (R20), and consecutive wet days (CWD) had downward trends, but only the last was statistically significant. The regional average of the indices of maximum 1-day precipitation (RX1day), maximum 5-day precipitation (RX5day), number of very wet days (R95p), number of extremely wet days (R99p), and number of consecutive dry days (CDD) showed upward trends, all statistically non-significant. The annual regional average PRCPTOT has decreased at a rate of − 6.20 mm/decade. The decrease was concentrated mainly in central and southern Zacatecas and is associated mainly with the decrease in autumn and summer precipitation. The annual regional average CDD index had increasing trends; 58.6% were statistically significant and concentrated mainly in central and southern Zacatecas. In terms of the general behavior of the PRCPTOT, RX1day, RX5day, R95p, R99p, CDD, and CWD indices, we observed that the precipitation events are decreasing but are becoming slightly more intense. The results will contribute to a better administration of water resources in the state of Zacatecas, Mexico, under the influence of climate change.



中文翻译:

通过气候变化指数评估墨西哥萨卡特卡斯州的极端降水

全球范围内在地方,区域和全球范围内发现的气候变化和极端气候事件对生态系统和社会产生了重大影响。在这项研究中,使用54年(1961-2014年)期间29个气象站的每日降水数据,调查了墨西哥中北部的极端降水事件的时空变化。使用气候变化检测和指数专家组(ETCCDI)建立的十个指数来描述极端降水事件,该指数以强度,累积和持续时间为特征来描述每日降水。指数是每年和季节性计算的。使用Theil-Sen方法估算了指数的年度和季节趋势,并使用Mann-Kendall检验(MK)检验了其统计显着性。雨天的年总降水量(PRCPTOT),单日强度(SDII),重降水天数(R10),超重降水天数(R20)和连续湿日(CWD)的区域平均指数下降了趋势,但只有最后一个具有统计意义。最大1天降水量(RX1天),最大5天降水量(RX5天),非常潮湿的天数(R95p),极端潮湿的天数(R99p)和连续干旱天数的指数的区域平均值( CDD)呈上升趋势,但在统计上均无统计学意义。每年的区域平均PRCPTOT下降速率为-6.20毫米/十年。下降主要集中在萨卡特卡斯州中部和南部,主要与秋季和夏季降水减少有关。区域CDD年度平均指数呈上升趋势。58.6%具有统计学意义,并且主要集中在萨卡特卡斯州中部和南部。就PRCPTOT,RX1day,RX5day,R95p,R99p,CDD和CWD指数的一般行为而言,我们观察到降水事件正在减少,但强度将略有增加。结果将有助于在气候变化的影响下,在墨西哥萨卡特卡斯州更好地管理水资源。

更新日期:2020-06-16
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