The combined and interacting effects of land-use change, resource extraction and climate change threaten the sustainability of millions of mainly smallholder farms in tropical agroforested landscapes. In many of these landscapes, coordinated action among stakeholders at landscape level would help to address challenges such as pests and diseases, price crises and climate change. However, methods to facilitate the co-production of sustainable landscape management in such complex multi-stakeholder systems are currently largely lacking. In this paper, we present a novel approach to explore pathways for the sustainability transition of agroforestry systems. By combining participatory forecasting and backcasting approaches, based on serious games and future vision development, we explore relevant agroforestry management strategies for reaching sustainable future coffee-based agroforestry landscapes. We focused our research on the challenges faced in the main coffee-producing area in Nicaragua. Here, we organized five participatory game sessions to explore farmer decision-making processes, farming strategies and to develop new networks and stimulate social learning among farmers. In the associated backcasting workshop, the most influential game session participants joined technicians, researchers and municipality officials to collectively envision sustainable future landscape management. In all game sessions, farmers developed diversified coffee-based agroforested landscapes characterised by increased density and diversity of shade trees, for the purpose of income diversification as well as forest conservation. During the backcasting workshop, the participants identified policy instruments and community-based solutions for the transition to sustainable landscapes. Our participatory approach facilitated discussion on landscape planning among farmers and other stakeholders and allowed the outline of a pathway towards the collective envisioned future landscape. The combination of participatory forecasting and backcasting proved to be a helpful tool to support multi-stakeholder processes towards sustainable landscape management in this and other complex landscapes.

中文翻译：

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结合参与式博弈和反向播报以支持集体情景评估：可持续农林业景观管理的行动研究方法

土地利用变化，资源开采和气候变化的综合和相互作用的影响，威胁着热带农林景观中数百万主要为小农的农场的可持续性。在许多这样的景观中，利益相关者在景观水平上的协调行动将有助于应对诸如病虫害，价格危机和气候变化等挑战。但是，目前在很大程度上缺乏在这种复杂的多利益相关方系统中促进可持续景观管理联合生产的方法。在本文中，我们提出了一种新颖的方法来探索农林业系统可持续性转型的途径。通过基于严肃的游戏和未来愿景的发展，结合参与式预测和后播方法，我们探索相关的农林业管理策略，以实现未来可持续的以咖啡为基础的农林业景观。我们将研究重点放在尼加拉瓜主要咖啡产区所面临的挑战上。在这里，我们组织了五个参与性游戏会议，探讨了农民的决策过程，耕作策略，并开发了新的网络并促进了农民之间的社会学习。在相关的重播工作坊中，最具影响力的游戏会议参与者与技术人员，研究人员和市政官员一起，共同设想了可持续的未来景观管理。在所有的比赛中，农民为了获得收入多样化和森林保护的目的，开发了多种以咖啡为主的农林景观，其特点是树荫密度和多样性增加。在返修研讨会上，与会人员确定了向可持续景观过渡的政策工具和基于社区的解决方案。我们的参与式方法促进了农民和其他利益相关者之间关于景观规划的讨论，并为通往集体设想的未来景观的途径概述了轮廓。参与式预测和反向播报的结合被证明是一个有用的工具，可以支持多方利益相关者在此以及其他复杂景观中实现可持续景观管理的过程。我们的参与式方法促进了农民和其他利益相关者之间关于景观规划的讨论，并为通往集体设想的未来景观的途径概述了轮廓。参与式预测和反向播报的结合被证明是一个有用的工具，可以支持多方利益相关者在此以及其他复杂景观中实现可持续景观管理的过程。我们的参与式方法促进了农民和其他利益相关者之间关于景观规划的讨论，并为通往集体设想的未来景观的途径概述了轮廓。参与式预测和反向播报的结合被证明是一个有用的工具，可以支持多方利益相关者在此以及其他复杂景观中实现可持续景观管理的过程。