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Prediction of bifurcations by varying critical parameters of COVID-19.
Nonlinear Dynamics ( IF 5.6 ) Pub Date : 2020-06-16 , DOI: 10.1007/s11071-020-05749-6
Fahimeh Nazarimehr 1 , Viet-Thanh Pham 2, 3, 4 , Tomasz Kapitaniak 4
Affiliation  

Coronavirus disease 2019 is a recent strong challenge for the world. In this paper, an epidemiology model is investigated as a model for the development of COVID-19. The propagation of COVID-19 through various sub-groups of society is studied. Some critical parameters, such as the background of mortality without considering the disease state and the speed of moving people from infected to resistance, affect the conditions of society. In this paper, early warning indicators are used to predict the bifurcation points in the system. In the interaction of various sub-groups of society, each sub-group can have various parameters. Six cases of the sub-groups interactions are studied. By coupling these sub-groups, various dynamics of the whole society are investigated.



中文翻译:

通过改变 COVID-19 的关键参数来预测分叉。

2019 年冠状病毒病是世界最近面临的严峻挑战。在本文中,研究了一个流行病学模型作为 COVID-19 发展的模型。研究了 COVID-19 在社会各个亚群中的传播。一些关键参数,例如不考虑疾病状态的死亡率背景以及人们从感染到抵抗的速度,会影响社会状况。本文采用预警指标预测系统中的分岔点。在社会各个亚群的相互作用中,每个亚群可以有不同的参数。研究了六个亚组相互作用的案例。通过耦合这些子群体,研究了整个社会的各种动态。

更新日期:2020-06-16
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