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A Bayesian Markov Model with Pólya-Gamma Sampling for Estimating Individual Behavior Transition Probabilities from Accelerometer Classifications
Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics ( IF 1.4 ) Pub Date : 2020-06-15 , DOI: 10.1007/s13253-020-00399-y
Toryn L. J. Schafer , Christopher K. Wikle , Jay A. VonBank , Bart M. Ballard , Mitch D. Weegman

The use of accelerometers in wildlife tracking provides a fine-scale data source for understanding animal behavior and decision making. Current methods in movement ecology focus on behavior as a driver of movement mechanisms. Our Markov model is a flexible and efficient method for inference related to effects on behavior that considers dependence between current and past behaviors. We applied this model to behavior data from six greater white-fronted geese ( Anser albifrons frontalis ) during spring migration in mid-continent North America and considered likely drivers of behavior, including habitat, weather and time of day effects. We modeled the transitions between flying, feeding, stationary and walking behavior states using a first-order Bayesian Markov model. We introduced Pólya-Gamma latent variables for automatic sampling of the covariate coefficients from the posterior distribution, and we calculated the odds ratios from the posterior samples. Our model provides a unifying framework for including both acceleration and Global Positioning System data. We found significant differences in behavioral transition rates among habitat types, diurnal behavior and behavioral changes due to weather. Our model provides straightforward inference of behavioral time allocation across used habitats, which is not amenable in activity budget or resource selection frameworks. Supplementary materials accompanying this paper appear online.

中文翻译:

使用 Pólya-Gamma 采样的贝叶斯马尔可夫模型,用于根据加速度计分类估计个体行为转移概率

加速度计在野生动物追踪中的使用为了解动物行为和决策提供了精细的数据源。当前运动生态学的方法侧重于作为运动机制驱动因素的行为。我们的马尔可夫模型是一种灵活而有效的方法,用于与考虑当前和过去行为之间的依赖性的行为影响相关的推理。我们将此模型应用于北美大陆中部春季迁徙期间六只大白额雁 (Anser albifrons frontalis) 的行为数据,并考虑了可能的行为驱动因素,包括栖息地、天气和一天中的时间影响。我们使用一阶贝叶斯马尔可夫模型对飞行、进食、静止和步行行为状态之间的转换进行建模。我们引入了 Pólya-Gamma 潜在变量,用于从后验分布中自动采样协变量系数,并从后验样本计算优势比。我们的模型提供了一个统一的框架,用于包括加速度和全球定位系统数据。我们发现栖息地类型、昼夜行为和天气引起的行为变化之间的行为转变率存在显着差异。我们的模型提供了对所用栖息地的行为时间分配的直接推断,这在活动预算或资源选择框架中是不适用的。本文随附的补充材料出现在网上。我们的模型提供了一个统一的框架,用于包括加速度和全球定位系统数据。我们发现栖息地类型、昼夜行为和天气引起的行为变化之间的行为转变率存在显着差异。我们的模型提供了对所用栖息地的行为时间分配的直接推断,这在活动预算或资源选择框架中是不适用的。本文随附的补充材料出现在网上。我们的模型提供了一个统一的框架,用于包括加速度和全球定位系统数据。我们发现栖息地类型、昼夜行为和天气引起的行为变化之间的行为转变率存在显着差异。我们的模型提供了对所用栖息地的行为时间分配的直接推断,这在活动预算或资源选择框架中是不适用的。本文随附的补充材料出现在网上。
更新日期:2020-06-15
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