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Disease and healthcare burden of COVID-19 in the United States.
Nature Medicine ( IF 82.9 ) Pub Date : 2020-06-16 , DOI: 10.1038/s41591-020-0952-y
Ian F Miller 1 , Alexander D Becker 1 , Bryan T Grenfell 1, 2 , C Jessica E Metcalf 1, 2
Affiliation  

As of 24 April 2020, the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic has resulted in over 830,000 confirmed infections in the United States1. The incidence of COVID-19, the disease associated with this new coronavirus, continues to rise. The epidemic threatens to overwhelm healthcare systems, and identifying those regions where the disease burden is likely to be high relative to the rest of the country is critical for enabling prudent and effective distribution of emergency medical care and public health resources. Globally, the risk of severe outcomes associated with COVID-19 has consistently been observed to increase with age2,3. We used age-specific mortality patterns in tandem with demographic data to map projections of the cumulative case burden of COVID-19 and the subsequent burden on healthcare resources. The analysis was performed at the county level across the United States, assuming a scenario in which 20% of the population of each county acquires infection. We identified counties that will probably be consistently, heavily affected relative to the rest of the country across a range of assumptions about transmission patterns, such as the basic reproductive rate, contact patterns and the efficacy of quarantine. We observed a general pattern that per capita disease burden and relative healthcare system demand may be highest away from major population centers. These findings highlight the importance of ensuring equitable and adequate allocation of medical care and public health resources to communities outside of major urban areas.



中文翻译:

在美国,COVID-19的疾病和医疗保健负担。

截至2020年4月24日,SARS-CoV-2流行已在美国导致超过830,000例确诊感染1。与这种新的冠状病毒有关的疾病COVID-19的发病率持续上升。该流行病威胁到医疗体系不堪重负,要确定那些疾病负担相对于该国其他地区可能较高的地区,对于确保审慎有效地分配紧急医疗和公共卫生资源至关重要。在全球范围内,一直观察到与COVID-19相关的严重后果的风险随着2,3岁而增加。我们将特定年龄的死亡率模式与人口统计数据结合使用,以绘制出COVID-19累计病例负担以及随后医疗保健负担的预测图。假设在每个县有20%的人口获得感染的情况下,该分析是在美国整个县级进行的。我们通过一系列有关传播方式的假设(例如基本繁殖率,接触方式和检疫功效),确定了相对于该国其他地区可能会受到持续严重影响的县。我们观察到一种一般模式,即远离主要人口中心的人均疾病负担和相对医疗系统需求可能最高。

更新日期:2020-06-16
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