Abstract Whether a new policy is adapted to a new social-ecological reality depends on the complex interactions that play out from the policy process itself. The established theories of the policy process do not directly or explicitly address the actors' ability to influence. This study attempts to fill this gap by developing a model of actors' capacity to influence (an actor-centered perspective) which allows us to analyze the casual relationship between actors' influencing capacity and its effects on policy decision-making. This paper provides an in-depth study of the 2010 Brazilian Solid Waste Policy, a policy process characterized by high conflict that took almost 20 years to be approved by Brazilian Congress. It maps the actors' capacity of influence over the course of ten years to understand how this influence is related to policy dynamics (change and stability) and policy contents (policy instruments adopted). The study involves document analyses and interviews with relevant stakeholders. The findings identify the important role of influential actors in causing moments of paralysis and in fostering instrumental design. The insights on actors' capacity of influence and its effects contribute to our understanding of the complex dynamics of the environmental policy process.

中文翻译：

---

MAIP：识别参与者影响及其对复杂环境政策决策过程的影响的模型

摘要 新政策是否适应新的社会生态现实取决于政策过程本身的复杂互动。政策过程的既定理论并没有直接或明确地解决行动者的影响能力。本研究试图通过开发行为者影响能力模型（以行为者为中心的视角）来填补这一空白，该模型使我们能够分析行为者影响能力与其对政策决策的影响之间的偶然关系。本文深入研究了 2010 年巴西固体废物政策，这是一个以高度冲突为特征的政策过程，巴西国会花了将近 20 年的时间才批准该政策。它映射了演员的 十年间了解这种影响如何与政策动态（变化和稳定）和政策内容（采用的政策工具）相关的能力。该研究涉及文件分析和与相关利益相关者的访谈。研究结果确定了有影响力的参与者在造成瘫痪时刻和促进工具设计方面的重要作用。对参与者的影响能力及其影响的洞察有助于我们理解环境政策过程的复杂动态。