The purpose of this study is to measure the sensitivity of traded quantities and trade unit values to agricultural production shocks. We develop a general equilibrium model of trade in which production shocks in exporting countries affect both traded quantities and trade unit values. The model includes per-unit trade costs and develops a methodology to quantify their size exploiting the trade unit value data. Using bilateral trade flow data for a large sample of countries and agricultural commodities we find that the intensive margin of trade is relatively inelastic to production shocks, with a 1 percent increase in production leading to a 0.5 percent increase in exports. We also find that per-unit trade costs are large, comprising 15 to 20 percent of import unit values on average. Overall, our results suggest that there is room for improving trade as a mechanism for coping with food production volatility.

中文翻译：

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衡量农业生产冲击对国际贸易流动的影响

本研究的目的是衡量贸易数量和贸易单位价值对农业生产冲击的敏感性。我们开发了一个贸易的一般均衡模型，其中出口国的生产冲击会影响贸易量和贸易单位价值。该模型包括单位贸易成本，并开发了一种利用贸易单位价值数据量化其规模的方法。使用大量国家和农产品的双边贸易流量数据，我们发现集约贸易边际对生产冲击的弹性相对较小，生产增加 1% 导致出口增加 0.5%。我们还发现单位贸易成本很大，平均占进口单位价值的 15% 到 20%。全面的，