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Spatial and temporal patterns of dengue incidence in Bhutan: a Bayesian analysis.
Emerging Microbes & Infections ( IF 13.2 ) Pub Date : 2020-06-15 , DOI: 10.1080/22221751.2020.1775497
Tsheten Tsheten 1, 2 , Archie C A Clements 3, 4 , Darren J Gray 1 , Sonam Wangchuk 2 , Kinley Wangdi 1
Affiliation  

ABSTRACT

Dengue is an important emerging vector-borne disease in Bhutan. This study aimed to quantify the spatial and temporal patterns of dengue and their relationship to environmental factors in dengue-affected areas at the sub-district level. A multivariate zero-inflated Poisson regression model was developed using a Bayesian framework with spatial and spatiotemporal random effects modelled using a conditional autoregressive prior structure. The posterior parameters were estimated using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation with Gibbs sampling. A total of 708 dengue cases were notified through national surveillance between January 2016 and June 2019. Individuals aged ≤14 years were found to be 53% (95% CrI: 42%, 62%) less likely to have dengue infection than those aged >14 years. Dengue cases increased by 63% (95% CrI: 49%, 77%) for a 1°C increase in maximum temperature, and decreased by 48% (95% CrI: 25%, 64%) for a one-unit increase in normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). There was significant residual spatial clustering after accounting for climate and environmental variables. The temporal trend was significantly higher than the national average in eastern sub-districts. The findings highlight the impact of climate and environmental variables on dengue transmission and suggests prioritizing high-risk areas for control strategies.



中文翻译:

不丹登革热发病的时空格局:贝叶斯分析。

摘要

登革热是不丹的一种重要的新兴媒介传播疾病。这项研究旨在量化街道一级登革热受影响地区的登革热时空格局及其与环境因素的关系。使用贝叶斯框架开发了多元零膨胀的Poisson回归模型,该模型具有使用条件自回归先验结构建模的空间和时空随机效应。使用贝叶斯马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗模拟和吉布斯采样估计后验参数。在2016年1月至2019年6月之间,通过国家监测共通报了708例登革热病例。发现年龄≤14岁的人比登革热>年龄的人,登革热感染的可能性降低了53%(95%CrI:42%,62%) 14年。登革热病例增加了63%(95%的感染率:49%,最高温度每升高1°C降低77%),而归一化植被指数(NDVI)升高1单位则降低48%(95%CrI:25%,64%)。考虑到气候和环境变量后,存在明显的剩余空间聚类。时间趋势明显高于东部街道的全国平均水平。研究结果强调了气候和环境变量对登革热传播的影响,并建议将高风险地区作为控制策略的重点。时间趋势明显高于东部分区的全国平均水平。研究结果突出了气候和环境变量对登革热传播的影响,并建议将高风险地区作为控制策略的重点。时间趋势明显高于东部街道的全国平均水平。研究结果强调了气候和环境变量对登革热传播的影响,并建议将高风险地区作为控制策略的重点。

更新日期:2020-06-15
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