The problem of improving the quality of governmental strategic planning and forecasting is considered. It is assumed that the model of the controlled system for designing managerial decisions is constructed in the course of the so-called system research. Mathematical models of this process, strategic decision-making and their impact on social welfare are developed in order to analyze the impact of the organization of system research on the quality of the resulting model and also on the quality of strategic managerial decisions. For this purpose, the construction procedure of the estimated social utility function is described. The accuracy and quality of managerial decisions based on maximizing this function are formalized. The robustness conditions of the controlled system (enterprise, industry, national economy) with respect to the distortions of the social utility function and optimal policy are described. The expected number of factors taken into consideration from all potentially significant factors depending on the number of experts engaged in system research is determined. As a result, the minimum admissible number (threshold) of experts required for constructing an adequate model of the controlled system is estimated. The model is simulated using the Monte Carlo method in MatLab.

考虑了提高政府战略规划和预测质量的问题。假定在所谓的系统研究过程中构造了用于设计管理决策的受控系统的模型。为了分析系统研究的组织对结果模型的质量以及对战略管理决策的质量的影响，开发了该过程，战略决策及其对社会福利影响的数学模型。为此，描述了估计的社会效用函数的构造过程。正式确定了基于最大化该功能的管理决策的准确性和质量。受控系统的健壮性条件（企业，行业，国民经济）中关于社会效用函数和最优政策的扭曲。确定了所有潜在重要因素中所考虑的预期因素数量，具体取决于从事系统研究的专家数量。结果，估计了构建适当的受控系统模型所需的专家的最低允许人数（阈值）。使用MatLab中的蒙特卡洛方法对模型进行仿真。估计构建适当的受控系统模型所需的专家的最低允许人数（阈值）。使用MatLab中的蒙特卡洛方法对模型进行仿真。估计构建适当的受控系统模型所需的专家的最低允许人数（阈值）。使用MatLab中的蒙特卡洛方法对模型进行仿真。