Understanding recruitment variability in marine fisheries has benefits for the stock management and dependent fishers’ ability to plan their income. Here, we overview past and new research on the complex recruitment dynamics of redleg banana prawns Penaeus indicus in Australia’s Joseph Bonaparte Gulf to assess themes dating back to the time of Hjort and identify new challenges. During 2015 and 2016, redleg prawn catches and catch per unit effort decreased to anomalously low levels, suggesting a substantial decrease in prawn biomass. We hypothesized that low catches could be explained by temporary drops in sea level and rainfall potentially reducing the ability of postlarvae to reach their nursery ground. We contend that very bad prawn catch years may be predicted using two variables that are possible drivers of recruitment—the January Southern Oscillation Index and the combined January to February cumulative rainfall. However, due to challenges in verifying and defining such environmental relationships for inclusion in a stock assessment, we propose development of a harvest strategy framework to support management recommendations. Our study highlights the increasing role of anthropogenic climate change in exaggerating the impacts of environmental drivers on recruitment processes and the need to also focus on multidisciplinary research.

中文翻译：

---

从过去到未来：了解和解释澳大利亚红腿香蕉对虾（Penaeus indicus）渔业的补充变异性

了解海洋渔业的招募变化有利于种群管理和依赖渔民计划收入的能力。在这里，我们概述了红腿香蕉对虾对虾复杂招募动态的过去和新研究在澳大利亚的约瑟夫波拿巴湾评估可追溯到 Hjort 时代的主题并确定新的挑战。在 2015 年和 2016 年期间，红腿对虾捕获量和单位努力量捕获量下降到异常低的水平，表明对虾生物量大幅下降。我们假设海平面暂时下降和降雨可能会降低后期幼体到达其育苗地的能力可以解释低捕获量。我们认为，可以使用两个可能是补充驱动因素的变量来预测非常糟糕的对虾捕捞年份——1 月南方涛动指数和 1 月至 2 月累积降雨量。然而，由于在验证和定义此类环境关系以纳入种群评估方面存在挑战，我们建议制定收获战略框架以支持管理建议。我们的研究强调了人为气候变化在夸大环境驱动因素对招聘过程的影响方面的日益重要的作用，以及关注多学科研究的必要性。