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Computational modeling of extreme wildland fire events: A synthesis of scientific understanding with applications to forecasting, land management, and firefighter safety
Journal of Computational Science ( IF 3.3 ) Pub Date : 2020-06-12 , DOI: 10.1016/j.jocs.2020.101152
Janice L. Coen , W. Schroeder , S. Conway , L. Tarnay

The understanding and prediction of large wildland fire events around the world is a growing interdisciplinary research area advanced rapidly by development and use of computational models. Recent models bidirectionally couple computational fluid dynamics models including weather prediction models with modules containing algorithms representing fire spread and heat release, simulating fire-atmosphere interactions across scales spanning three orders of magnitude. Integrated with weather data and airborne and satellite remote sensing data on wildland fuels and active fire detection, modern coupled weather-fire modeling systems are being used to solve current science problems. Compared to legacy tools, these dynamic computational modeling systems increase cost and complexity but have produced breakthrough insights notably into the mechanisms underlying extreme wildfire events such as fine-scale extreme winds associated with interruptions of the electricity grid and have been configured to forecast a fire's growth, expanding our ability to anticipate how they will unfold. We synthesize case studies of recent extreme events, expanding applications, and the challenges and limitations in our remote sensing systems, fire prediction tools, and meteorological models that add to wildfires' mystery and apparent unpredictability.



中文翻译:

极端荒野火灾事件的计算模型:科学理解的综合,应用于预测,土地管理和消防员安全

对世界范围内大型野火事件的理解和预测是一个不断发展的跨学科研究领域,通过开发和使用计算模型而迅速发展。最近的模型将包括天气预报模型在内的计算流体动力学模型与包含表示火势蔓延和热量释放的算法的模块进行双向耦合,以模拟跨越三个数量级的尺度上的火-气相互作用。与天气数据以及有关荒地燃料的机载和卫星遥感数据以及主动火情检测相结合,现代耦合的天火模型系统正在用于解决当前的科学问题。与旧版工具相比,这些动态的计算建模系统增加了成本和复杂性,但已产生了突破性的见识,尤其是对极端野火事件的机制(例如与电网中断相关的细小极端风)的理解,并已配置为预测火灾的增长,从而扩大了我们的能力。预测他们将如何发展。我们综合了最近的极端事件,不断扩展的应用以及我们的遥感系统,火灾预测工具和气象模型中的挑战与局限性的案例研究,这些案例增加了野火的神秘性和明显的不可预测性。扩大我们预期它们将如何发展的能力。我们综合了最近的极端事件,不断扩展的应用以及我们的遥感系统,火灾预测工具和气象模型中的挑战与局限性的案例研究,这些案例增加了野火的神秘性和明显的不可预测性。扩大我们预期它们将如何发展的能力。我们综合了最近的极端事件,不断扩展的应用以及我们的遥感系统,火灾预测工具和气象模型中的挑战与局限性的案例研究,这些案例增加了野火的神秘性和明显的不可预测性。

更新日期:2020-06-12
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