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Forecasting Pacific saury (Cololabis saira) fishing grounds off Japan using a migration model driven by an ocean circulation model
Ecological Modelling ( IF 3.1 ) Pub Date : 2020-09-01 , DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2020.109150
Shigeho Kakehi , Jun-ichi Abo , Hiroomi Miyamoto , Taiki Fuji , Kazuyoshi Watanabe , Hideyuki Yamashita , Satoshi Suyama

Abstract Pre-fishing season (June and July) Pacific saury Cololabis saira occur offshore, east of Japan, before migrating west to nearshore waters where they are exploited by Japanese fishers in the autumn (September–November). To forecast the location of these fishing grounds we develop a migration model using oceanographic (temperature and current velocity) and fisheries (pre-fishing Pacific saury distribution obtained from stock assessment surveys) data, and migration characteristics determined from fishery data analysis. We speculate that Pacific saury migrate seasonally, first north, staying within a certain temperature zone from May to July, then west, remaining within a preferred but gradually increasing temperature zone. We tune our model using hindcast calculation to reproduce actual fishing grounds around Japan. In July 2018 we forecast the locations of early Pacific saury fishing grounds from August to September. Our forecast fishing grounds were subsequently validated by actual positions of the fishing grounds. Our model successfully forecast the locations of early fishing grounds along the Kuril Islands archipelago, and forecast particles that reached an offshore region roughly predicted offshore fishing grounds. This model also identified Pacific saury migration route trajectories in detail, and that these two fishing grounds in 2018 were formed from geographically separated pre-fishing season shoals via different migration routes. We believe that applying our model will improve the efficiency of the Pacific saury fishery and fleet operation through savings in vessel fuel and time spent searching for shoals.

中文翻译:

使用由海洋环流模型驱动的迁移模型预测日本近海秋刀鱼 (Cololabis saira) 渔场

摘要 捕捞前季节(6 月和 7 月) 太平洋秋刀鱼 Cololabis saira 出现在日本东部近海,然后向西迁移到近岸水域,秋季(9 月至 11 月)被日本渔民捕捞。为了预测这些渔场的位置,我们使用海洋学(温度和流速)和渔业(从种群评估调查中获得的捕捞前太平洋刀鱼分布)数据以及从渔业数据分析确定的迁移特征开发了一个迁移模型。我们推测,秋刀鱼季节性迁移,首先向北迁移,从 5 月到 7 月停留在某个温度带内,然后向西迁移,保持在首选但逐渐升高的温度带内。我们使用后报计算来调整我们的模型,以重现日本周围的实际渔场。2018 年 7 月,我们预测了 8 月至 9 月早期太平洋秋刀鱼渔场的位置。我们预测的渔场随后通过渔场的实际位置进行验证。我们的模型成功预测了千岛群岛早期渔场的位置,并预测了到达近海区域的粒子,粗略地预测了近海渔场。该模型还详细识别了秋刀鱼洄游路线轨迹,2018年这两个渔场是由地理上分开的捕捞季前浅滩通过不同的洄游路线形成的。我们相信,应用我们的模型将通过节省船舶燃料和寻找浅滩的时间来提高太平洋刀鱼渔业和船队运营的效率。
更新日期:2020-09-01
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