It has been claimed and disputed that World War II has been followed by a ‘long peace’: an unprecedented decline of war. We conduct a full change point analysis of well‐documented, publicly available battle deaths data sets, using new techniques that enable the robust detection of changes in the statistical properties of such heavy‐tailed data. We first test and calibrate these techniques. We then demonstrate the existence of changes, independent of data presentation, in the early to mid‐19th century, as the Congress of Vienna system moved towards its collapse, in the early to mid‐20th century, bracketing the World Wars, and in the late 20th century, as the world reconfigured around the end of the Cold War. Our analysis provides a methodology for future investigations and an empirical basis for political and historical discussions.

中文翻译：

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历史战役死亡的转折点分析

有人声称并质疑，第二次世界大战之后是“长期和平”：战争空前减少。我们使用新技术对有据可查的，公开可用的战斗死亡数据集进行完整的变化点分析，这些技术能够可靠地检测出此类重尾数据的统计属性中的变化。我们首先测试并校准这些技术。然后，我们展示了19世纪初至20世纪中叶，随着维也纳会议体系走向崩溃，在20世纪初至20世纪中叶，伴随着世界大战以及整个世界大战，随着数据的呈现，变化的存在与数据呈现无关。 20世纪末，世界在冷战即将结束时进行了重新配置。我们的分析为将来的调查提供了一种方法，并为政治和历史讨论提供了经验基础。