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A review of the day-ahead natural gas consumption in Denmark: starting point towards forecasting accuracy improvement
International Journal of Coal Science & Technology Pub Date : 2020-05-27 , DOI: 10.1007/s40789-020-00331-2
Orhan Altuğ Karabiber , George Xydis

Natural gas consumption forecasting is crucial for transmission system operators, distribution system operators, traders, and other players in the market. This work collects natural gas forecasting scientific works in accordance with the forecasting tool used by Energinet, the Danish transmission system operator. The work provides an analytical description on the long-term stability and security of the natural gas transmission system in Denmark. This work offers a detailed scientific directory on natural gas forecasting, presenting the so far vaguely described market in a more structured manner. The paper was focused on presenting the latest findings on identifying the selection each time of the appropriate prognostic model for each application based on: ① the option for supporting double seasonality, ② various exogenous variables, ③ suitability for day-ahead forecasting, and ④ ease of use and all these versus Energinet’s current model.



中文翻译:

丹麦日间天然气消费量回顾:预测准确性提高的起点

天然气消耗量预测对于传输系统运营商,配电系统运营商,贸易商和其他市场参与者而言至关重要。这项工作根据丹麦传输系统运营商Energinet使用的预测工具收集了天然气预测科学著作。该工作对丹麦天然气传输系统的长期稳定性和安全性进行了分析性描述。这项工作提供了有关天然气预测的详细科学目录,以更加结构化的方式介绍了迄今为止含糊不清的市场。本文的重点是提出最新的发现,以基于以下条件为每种应用选择合适的预后模型:①支持双重季节性的选项;②各种外生变量;

更新日期:2020-05-27
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