The Zhanghe Reservoir in Yangtze River basin plays a key role in fulfilling the crop water requirements of the irrigation area in its downstream region. This study employs the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model to simulate the variations of Zhanghe Reservoir inflow. The model performed well at monthly timescale, with the values of both NSE and R2 above 0.7. The land use distribution and the structure changes in 1990, 2000, and 2015 are employed to study the reservoir inflow responses to the land use changes in the contributed basin area. In the historical period (1990–2000), the streamflow was decreased by 0.4%, accompanied by the reductions of farmland and grassland area, and the increase of forestry area. The land use scenarios are further designed for considering possible future land use alterations. The low flow responses to the completely forestry cover for the basin is more obvious to the completely grassland cover. Accordingly, the further afforestation may aggravate the drought situation due to the low flow reduction. In addition, the high flow responses are reversed to these two land cover situations. The obtained results are useful for designing future sustainable development strategies for the region.

中文翻译：

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长江流域漳河水库上游径流对土地利用变化的响应研究。

长江流域的漳河水库在满足下游灌区的作物需水量方面发挥着关键作用。本研究采用SWAT（土壤和水评估工具）模型来模拟漳河水库入库流量的变化。该模型在每月时间尺度上表现良好，NSE和R2的值均大于0.7。利用1990年，2000年和2015年的土地利用分布和结构变化研究了贡献流域的水库流入对土地利用变化的响应。在历史时期（1990-2000年），流量减少了0.4％，伴随着耕地和草地面积的减少以及林业面积的增加。进一步设计了土地利用方案，以考虑未来可能发生的土地利用变化。对流域完全森林覆盖的低流量响应对完全草地覆盖更为明显。因此，由于低流量减少，进一步的造林可能加剧干旱状况。此外，高流量响应与这两种土地覆盖情况相反。获得的结果对于设计该地区未来的可持续发展战略很有用。