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Trends in extreme temperature and rainfall indices in the semi-arid areas of Western Tigray, Ethiopia
Environmental Systems Research Pub Date : 2020-02-18 , DOI: 10.1186/s40068-020-00165-6
Abadi Berhane , Gebre Hadgu , Walelign Worku , Berhanu Abrha

Background Africa is the most vulnerable continent in the world; which recurrent droughts, extreme temperature and rainfall affects agriculture and food security. The aim of this study was to analyze the trends in extreme temperature and rainfall in major sesame producing areas in western Tigray using RClimDex software. We selected eight temperature and nine rainfall indices from 27 extreme temperature and rainfall indices, which are recommended by joint CCL/CLIVAR/JCOMM Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). A non-parametric Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimates were used to test the statistical significance and trend of each of the extreme temperature and rainfall indices, respectively. Results Number of heavy rainy days, number of very heavy rainy days, very wet days, extremely wet days, and maximum 5 days precipitation showed a negative trend, with significant (p < 0.05) decrease throughout the study area. Monthly maximum value of maximum and minimum value of maximum temperature, monthly maximum and minimum value of minimum temperature, hot days and hot nights revealed positive trend throughout the study areas. Total rainfall was decreasing significantly (p < 0.05) by 13.34 mm, 13.8 mm, 14.65 mm, 10.9 mm and 8.4 mm/year at Humera and Dansha, Adiremets, Maygaba, Maytsebri and Sheraro, and Adigoshu, respectively. Spatial analysis on extreme temperature also indicated there was relatively lower variability on minimum temperature in Humera, Dansha, Adiremets, and Adigoshu. On average, the western part of Tigray experienced a reduction in total rainfall ranging 8.45 to 14.7 mm/year; and increase in average maximum temperature of 0.04 to 0.051 °C/year since 1983 to 2016. The results also revealed an increase in warm nights and warm days ranging from 0.31 to 0.62 days, and 0.38 to 0.71 days/year, respectively. Conclusions Increase in temperature and decrease in amount of rainfall may have a negative impact on crop transpiration, photosynthetic rate and soil water balance; exacerbating distribution and infestation of malaria and leishmaniasis. The results in this study could have an important role in identifying possible present and future production strategies on sesame, cotton, and sorghum crops, which are essential cash crops produced by farmers and investors.

中文翻译:

埃塞俄比亚西提格雷半干旱地区极端温度和降雨指数趋势

背景 非洲是世界上最脆弱的大陆;反复发生的干旱、极端温度和降雨影响农业和粮食安全。本研究的目的是使用 RClimDex 软件分析提格雷西部主要芝麻产区的极端温度和降雨趋势。我们从 CCL/CLIVAR/JCOMM 气候变化检测和指数联合专家组 (ETCCDI) 推荐的 27 个极端温度和降雨指数中选择了 8 个温度和 9 个降雨指数。非参数 Mann-Kendall 检验和 Sen 斜率估计分别用于检验每个极端温度和降雨指数的统计显着性和趋势。结果 大雨天数、大雨天数、大雨天数、大雨天数、最大 5 天降水量呈负趋势,整个研究区域显着(p < 0.05)下降。各研究区最高气温月最高和最低值、最低气温月最高和最低值、日热夜热均呈正趋势。Humera 和 Dansha、Adiremets、Maygaba、Maytsebri 和 Sheraro 以及 Adigoshu 的总降雨量分别显着减少 (p < 0.05) 13.34 毫米、13.8 毫米、14.65 毫米、10.9 毫米和 8.4 毫米/年。极端温度空间分析还表明,胡梅拉、丹沙、阿迪雷梅茨和阿迪戈舒的最低温度变化相对较小。平均而言,提格雷西部的总降雨量减少了 8.45 至 14.7 毫米/年;自 1983 年至 2016 年,平均最高气温增加了 0.04 至 0.051 °C/年。结果还显示,暖夜和暖日分别增加了 0.31 至 0.62 天和 0.38 至 0.71 天/年。结论 气温升高和降雨量减少可能对作物蒸腾作用、光合速率和土壤水分平衡产生负面影响;加剧疟疾和利什曼病的分布和感染。这项研究的结果可能对确定芝麻、棉花和高粱作物目前和未来可能的生产策略具有重要作用,芝麻、棉花和高粱是农民和投资者生产的重要经济作物。分别。结论 气温升高和降雨量减少可能对作物蒸腾作用、光合速率和土壤水分平衡产生不利影响;加剧疟疾和利什曼病的分布和感染。这项研究的结果可能对确定芝麻、棉花和高粱作物目前和未来可能的生产策略具有重要作用,芝麻、棉花和高粱是农民和投资者生产的重要经济作物。分别。结论 气温升高和降雨量减少可能对作物蒸腾作用、光合速率和土壤水分平衡产生负面影响;加剧疟疾和利什曼病的分布和感染。这项研究的结果可能对确定芝麻、棉花和高粱作物目前和未来可能的生产策略具有重要作用,芝麻、棉花和高粱是农民和投资者生产的重要经济作物。
更新日期:2020-02-18
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