The objective of this article is to analyze the determinants of world wine exports in the first globalization, taking into account the principal exporting countries and using an extended version of the gravity model. The article distinguishes between ordinary- and high-quality wines. Our econometric results show that wine exports were not affected by the increase in the size of the markets of consuming countries, since in most of them wine was an alcoholic beverage consumed by a very small minority of the population. The harvests of the producing countries, particularly in preceding years, significantly and positively affected their exports. Conversely, the harvests of importers hurt exports as there was a home bias in consumption due to cultural, price, or tariff protection reasons. In the interwar period, the wine trade was severely affected by a series of shocks such as WWI, the Soviet revolution, the Prohibition, and the 1930s depression. As was the case with trade as a whole, the fall in transaction costs, favored exports, at least those of lower-priced and lower-quality wine. However, the liberalization of trade had a lesser impact on wine than on other products. (JEL Classifications: F14, N50, Q13, Q17)

中文翻译：

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解释第一波全球化浪潮中的世界葡萄酒出口，1848-1938

本文的目的是分析第一次全球化中世界葡萄酒出口的决定因素，考虑主要出口国并使用引力模型的扩展版本。这篇文章区分了普通葡萄酒和高品质葡萄酒。我们的计量经济学结果表明，葡萄酒出口不受消费国市场规模扩大的影响，因为在大多数消费国中，葡萄酒是一种由极少数人口消费的酒精饮料。生产国的收成，特别是前几年的收成，对其出口产生了重大而积极的影响。相反，由于文化、价格或关税保护的原因，进口商的收成会损害出口，因为消费存在国内偏见。在两次世界大战期间，葡萄酒贸易受到第一次世界大战、苏联革命、禁酒令和 1930 年代萧条等一系列冲击的严重影响。与整个贸易的情况一样，交易成本的下降有利于出口，至少是价格较低和质量较低的葡萄酒的出口。然而，贸易自由化对葡萄酒的影响比对其他产品的影响要小。（JEL 分类：F14、N50、Q13、Q17）