Analyzing demand behavior of end consumers is pivotal in long term energy planning. Various models exist for simulating household load profiles to cater different purposes. A macroscopic viewpoint necessitates modeling of a large-scale population at an aggregate level, whereas a microscopic perspective requires measuring loads at a granular level, pertinent to the individual devices of a household. Both aspects have lucrative benefits, instigating the need to combine them into a modeling framework which allows model scalability and flexibility, and to analyze domestic electricity consumption at different resolutions. In this applied research, we propose a multi-resolution agent-based modeling and simulation (ABMS) framework for estimating domestic electricity consumption. Our proposed framework simulates per minute electricity consumption by combining large neighborhoods, the behavior of household individuals, their interactions with the electrical appliances, their sociological habits and the effects of exogenous conditions such as weather and seasons. In comparison with the existing energy models, our framework uniquely provides a hierarchical, multi-scale, multi-resolution implementation using a multi-layer architecture. This allows the modelers flexibility in order to model large-scale neighborhoods at one end, without any loss of expressiveness in modeling microscopic details of individuals’ activities at house level, and energy consumption at the appliance level, at the other end. The validity of our framework is demonstrated using a case study of 264 houses. A validated ABMS framework will support: (a) Effective energy planning; (b) Estimation of the future energy demand; (c) and the analysis of the complex dynamic behavior of the consumers.

中文翻译：

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基于多分辨率代理的家庭电力需求分布的分层建模和仿真框架

分析终端消费者的需求行为是长期能源规划的关键。存在各种模型来模拟家庭负载曲线以满足不同的目的。宏观视角需要在总体层面对大规模人口进行建模，而微观视角则需要在粒度层面测量负载，与家庭的单个设备相关。这两个方面都有丰厚的好处，这促使需要将它们组合成一个建模框架，该框架允许模型的可扩展性和灵活性，并以不同的分辨率分析家庭用电量。在这项应用研究中，我们提出了一种基于多分辨率代理的建模和仿真 (ABMS) 框架，用于估算家庭用电量。我们提出的框架通过结合大社区、家庭个人的行为、他们与电器的互动、他们的社会习惯以及天气和季节等外生条件的影响来模拟每分钟的电力消耗。与现有的能源模型相比，我们的框架使用多层架构独特地提供了分层、多尺度、多分辨率的实现。这使得建模者可以灵活地在一端对大规模社区进行建模，而在建模个人活动的微观细节时，在房屋层面上的表现力和在电器层面上的能源消耗不会损失任何表现力，在另一端。使用 264 所房屋的案例研究证明了我们框架的有效性。经过验证的 ABMS 框架将支持：(a) 有效的能源规划；(b) 对未来能源需求的估计；(c) 以及消费者复杂动态行为的分析。