Biological invasions have increased in recent years, as these are facilitated by traffic networks of human infrastructure. Accidental release from the animal industry is an important cause of biological invasions, and allows for the clear determination of the source of non-native species. Such examples of invasion can be beneficial for studies on the relative importance of local environments by comparing establishment successes from different sources. Nutrias (Myocastor coypus), originally introduced to South Korea for meat and fur production, escaped from local farms into the wild in the late 1990s. Using ensemble species distribution models (ESDM), we assessed 1) suitable habitat conditions for nutrias, 2) establishment success from different source localities after the nutrias' escape from farms, and 3) changes in habitat suitability based on regional climate scenarios. We found that the distribution of nutrias was largely influenced by temperature regime (i.e., minimum temperature during the winter; 44.1 ± 11.4% of variable contribution in the ESDM) and invasion success of nutrias that had escaped from different local farms was also related to the local climate conditions. Escaped nutrias were widely observed around the farms with favorable habitat conditions. Our model predicted a gradual expansion of habitats suitable for nutrias; however, core habitats are isolated by high-mountain ridges and watershed boundaries. National campaigns to prevent translocation between different watersheds are important to control further expansion of escaped nutrias.

近年来，由于人类基础设施的交通网络促进了生物入侵，因此生物入侵有所增加。畜牧业的意外释放是生物入侵的重要原因，并且可以清楚地确定非本地物种的来源。通过比较不同来源建立成功的案例，此类入侵实例对于研究本地环境的相对重要性可能是有益的。tri（Myocastor巨水鼠）最初传入韩国是为了生产肉类和毛皮，在1990年代后期从当地农场逃到了野外。使用总体物种分布模型（ESDM），我们评估了1）食用坚果的合适栖息地条件，2）食用坚果从农场逃脱后，来自不同来源地区的成功建立，以及3）基于区域气候情景的栖息地适应性变化。我们发现，营养素的分布很大程度上受温度制度的影响（例如，冬季最低温度； ESDM中44.1±11.4％的可变贡献），而从不同地方农场逃脱的营养素的入侵成功也与温度的变化有关。当地的气候条件。农场周围普遍观察到逃逸的营养素，栖息地条件良好。我们的模型预测了适合养分的栖息地将逐步扩大；然而，核心栖息地却被高高的山脊和流域边界所隔离。开展全国运动以防止不同流域之间的迁移对于控制逃脱的营养素的进一步扩大很重要。