Abstract In this work, the ability of the Empirical Orthogonal Teleconnections technique to provide useful information for decisions on wind capacity allocation aimed at enhanced output stability is explored. Using data from a high-resolution simulation with the regional climate model REMO over the Iberian Peninsula, the performance of Empirical Orthogonal Teleconnections is assessed against the outcome of random wind farm siting, and also against an alternative procedure employing Principal Component Analysis. Results show that siting informed by the Empirical Orthogonal Teleconnections methodology leads to increased probabilities of achieving higher firm capacities and lower output variance, improving not only the random allocation, but that given by the Principal Component Analysis procedure as well. The benefits stem from the smoothing effect of aggregating the output from wind farms located within specific areas identified by our technique. Our appraisal also considers the spatial extent of the areas made available to the siting choice, as well as the effects on the capacity factor. Being a comparatively inexpensive technique, Empirical Orthogonal Teleconnections offers good prospects for further diagnosis of the wind intermittency problem and its mitigation through spatial aggregation, and also as a preliminary, dimension reductive assessment for the application of more computationally demanding methods.

中文翻译：

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使用经验正交遥相关减少总风力发电可变性：在伊比利亚半岛的应用

摘要 在这项工作中，探索了经验正交遥相关技术为旨在提高输出稳定性的风容量分配决策提供有用信息的能力。使用来自伊比利亚半岛区域气候模型 REMO 的高分辨率模拟数据，根据随机风电场选址的结果以及采用主成分分析的替代程序评估经验正交遥相关的性能。结果表明，由经验正交遥相关方法告知的选址导致实现更高企业能力和更低产出方差的可能性增加，不仅改善了随机分配，而且还改善了主成分分析程序给出的分配。好处源于汇总位于我们的技术确定的特定区域内的风电场的输出的平滑效果。我们的评估还考虑了可供选址选择的区域的空间范围，以及对容量因素的影响。作为一种相对便宜的技术，经验正交遥相关为进一步诊断风间歇性问题及其通过空间聚合进行缓解提供了良好的前景，并且还作为对计算要求更高的方法应用的初步降维评估。以及对容量因子的影响。作为一种相对便宜的技术，经验正交遥相关为进一步诊断风间歇性问题及其通过空间聚合进行缓解提供了良好的前景，并且还可作为对计算要求更高的方法应用的初步降维评估。以及对容量因子的影响。作为一种相对便宜的技术，经验正交遥相关为进一步诊断风间歇性问题及其通过空间聚合进行缓解提供了良好的前景，并且还作为对计算要求更高的方法应用的初步降维评估。