To help optimize the spacecraft design and reduce the risk of spacecraft mission failure, a new approach to assess the survivability of spacecraft in orbit is presented here, including the following three steps: 1) Sensitivity Analysis of spacecraft. A new sensitivity analysis method, a ray method based on virtual outer wall, is presented here. Using rays to simulate the debris cloud can effectively address the component shadowing issues. 2) Component Vulnerability analysis of spacecraft. A function “Component functional reduction degree – Component physical damage degree” is provided here to clearly describe the component functional reduction. 3) System-level Survivability Assessment of spacecraft. A new method based on expert knowledge reasoning, instead of traditional artificial failure tree method, is presented here to greatly improve the efficiency and accuracy of calculation.

为了帮助优化航天器的设计并减少航天器执行任务失败的风险，这里提出了一种评估航天器在轨道上生存能力的新方法，包括以下三个步骤：1）航天器的灵敏度分析。提出了一种新的灵敏度分析方法，一种基于虚拟外壁的射线法。使用射线模拟碎片云可以有效地解决组件遮挡问题。2）航天器部件易损性分析。此处提供了“部件功能降低程度–部件物理损坏程度”功能，以清楚地描述部件功能降低。3）航天器的系统级生存能力评估。一种基于专家知识推理的新方法，代替了传统的人工故障树方法，