Abstract A consistent procedure is required to deal with uncertainties in seismic hazard studies. In particular, uncertainties in shear wave velocity (VS) profiles are important for 1D numerical simulations of site response conducted within a probabilistic framework. This work proposes a new geostatistical model for shear wave velocity profiles. The main characteristic of the model is the separation of the random variables space and time. The model is calibrated using a database of surface wave tests compiled for this purpose. The flexibility of the model is then demonstrated by presenting a first prototype version for down-hole tests. The proposed geostatistical model is validated through an application to a real case study at Mirandola (Italy), one of the sites included in the InterPACIFIC project. The results show a significant improvement in the management (i.e., treatment) of uncertainties for ground response analyses, compared to the methods usually adopted for this purpose. The new geostatistical model allows for a rigorous quantification of the uncertainties introduced in the hazard study; these uncertainties depend on both the characteristics of the investigated site and the performed test. It is also shown that the randomization procedure provides a set of profiles which are fully consistent with the independent experimental “site signatures” available at the site.

中文翻译：

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一种新的横波速度剖面地统计模型

摘要 需要一致的程序来处理地震灾害研究中的不确定性。特别是，剪切波速度 (VS) 剖面的不确定性对于在概率框架内进行的场地响应的一维数值模拟非常重要。这项工作提出了一种新的横波速度剖面的地质统计模型。该模型的主要特点是随机变量空间和时间的分离。该模型使用为此目的编译的表面波测试数据库进行校准。然后通过展示用于井下测试的第一个原型版本来证明模型的灵活性。提议的地质统计模型通过在米兰多拉（意大利）的真实案例研究中的应用得到验证，米兰多拉是 InterPACIFIC 项目中的站点之一。结果表明，与通常为此目的采用的方法相比，地面响应分析的不确定性管理（即处理）有了显着改进。新的地质统计模型允许对危险研究中引入的不确定性进行严格量化；这些不确定性取决于所调查地点的特征和进行的测试。还表明随机化程序提供了一组与现场可用的独立实验“现场签名”完全一致的配置文件。这些不确定性取决于所调查地点的特征和进行的测试。还表明随机化程序提供了一组与现场可用的独立实验“现场签名”完全一致的配置文件。这些不确定性取决于所调查地点的特征和进行的测试。还表明随机化程序提供了一组与现场可用的独立实验“现场签名”完全一致的配置文件。