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Development of a dynamic quantitative risk assessment methodology using fuzzy DEMATEL-BN and leading indicators
Process Safety and Environmental Protection ( IF 7.8 ) Pub Date : 2020-10-01 , DOI: 10.1016/j.psep.2020.04.038
Omran Ahmadi , Seyed Bagher Mortazavi , Hasan Asilian Mahabadi , Mehdi Hosseinpouri

Abstract In this study, barriers elements and initiating events of accidents and their risk influence factors were identified and classified according to a developed conceptual model, relationship between the risk influences factors were determined using a fuzzy DEMATEL model, the risk influence factors weight was determined using a fuzzy AHP model and conditional probability table of the risk influence factors was obtained using Roed method. The probability of the initiating events and the barrier elements failure was determined using fuzzy logic. The barrier elements and the initiating events were modeled by mapping bow-tie in Bayesian network. The Bayesian networks of risk influence factors were constructed by mapping the fuzzy DEMATEL outputs in the Bayesian network. Leading indicators were developed for the risk influence factors and their content validity, practicability and importance were assessed using the fuzzy logic and eliciting expert’s opinion using a paired comparison method. Finally, this paper employed atmospheric storage tanks as a case study for explanation and verification of the significant benefits of the methodology developed by this study.

中文翻译:

使用模糊 DEMATEL-BN 和领先指标开发动态定量风险评估方法

摘要 本研究根据开发的概念模型对障碍要素、事故始发事件及其风险影响因素进行识别和分类,利用模糊DEMATEL模型确定风险影响因素之间的关系,确定风险影响因素权重。利用Roed方法得到了风险影响因素的模糊层次分析模型和条件概率表。起始事件和屏障元件失效的概率是使用模糊逻辑确定的。通过在贝叶斯网络中映射领结来模拟屏障元素和起始事件。风险影响因素的贝叶斯网络是通过映射贝叶斯网络中的模糊 DEMATEL 输出来构建的。针对风险影响因素制定了先行指标,采用模糊逻辑法评估其内容效度、实用性和重要性,并采用配对比较法征求专家意见。最后,本文以常压储罐作为案例研究,以解释和验证本研究开发的方法的显着优势。
更新日期:2020-10-01
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