Abstract A new nowcasting method is herewith proposed to monitor the crucial components of the variability of the stratospheric ozone depletion. A demonstration of this method is performed considering the daily measurements of the minimum air temperature in the latitude range 50oN – 90oN, at 50 hPa, during the period 1/1/1979-06/04/2020. The motivation for choosing this geographical area is the fact that unusual dynamic conditions in the winter in the Arctic region this year resulted in a record-low ozone level in much of central Arctic, with an area about three times that of Greenland. In addition, discussion on whether the Arctic stratospheric temperature in the winter of 2020 was indeed the lowest in the record is presented. Comparing the temporal evolution of the winter-spring minimum temperature in the year 2019–2020 of the unprecedented ozone hole showed that it resembles that of 2010–2011, when, however, no such ozone hole occurred. This fact suggests that this phenomenon is complex and does not depend solely on the temperature regime of the polar stratosphere. The interactive combination of possible factors that contributed to the appearance of the first ozone hole over the Arctic during the winter-spring period of 2019–2020, such as the long-lasting of the strong and stable polar vortex, the large extent and duration of polar stratospheric clouds, are discussed in detail.

中文翻译：

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从 2020 年北极前所未有的臭氧空洞中吸取的教训；针对此类极端事件的新型临近预报工具

摘要 本文提出了一种新的临近预报方法来监测平流层臭氧消耗变化的关键组成部分。考虑到在 1979 年 1 月 1 日至 2020 年 4 月 1 日期间在 50 hPa 纬度范围内 50oN – 90oN 的最低气温的每日测量，对该方法进行了演示。选择这个地理区域的动机是，今年北极地区冬季异常的动态条件导致北极中部大部分地区的臭氧水平创下历史新低，其面积约为格陵兰岛的三倍。此外，还讨论了2020年冬季北极平流层温度是否确实是有记录以来的最低值。比较史无前例的臭氧空洞在 2019-2020 年冬春季最低温度的时间演变表明它类似于 2010-2011 年，但没有发生这种臭氧空洞。这一事实表明，这种现象很复杂，并不仅仅取决于极地平流层的温度状况。2019-2020年冬春期间北极上空出现第一个臭氧空洞的可能因素的相互作用组合，如强而稳定的极地涡旋持续时间长、持续时间长、范围大、持续时间长等。对极地平流层云进行了详细讨论。这一事实表明，这种现象很复杂，并不仅仅取决于极地平流层的温度状况。2019-2020年冬春期间北极上空出现第一个臭氧空洞的可能因素的相互作用组合，如强而稳定的极地涡旋持续时间长、持续时间长、范围大、持续时间长等。对极地平流层云进行了详细讨论。这一事实表明，这种现象很复杂，并不仅仅取决于极地平流层的温度状况。2019-2020年冬春期间北极上空出现第一个臭氧空洞的可能因素的相互作用组合，如强而稳定的极地涡旋持续时间长、持续时间长、范围大、持续时间长等。对极地平流层云进行了详细讨论。