Abstract The subsurface temperature is one of the most crucial parameters for the development of geothermal energy. Physics-based temperature models calibrated with temperature data are especially relevant for deep geothermal exploration. We present an updated high-resolution 3D thermal model of the onshore Netherlands. We constructed the model in 7 steps, starting from a lithospheric-scale, physics-based forward model and progressively detailing and updating it using temperature data. The model is built up from 14 sedimentary layers and layers for the upper crust, lower crust, and lithospheric mantle. We assigned a-priori thermal properties for each layer and updated them through an inversion procedure by the Ensemble Smoother with Multiple Data Assimilation (ES-MDA), using 1507 temperature measurements as observations. Misfits of the prior model are significantly reduced through the data assimilation procedure, demonstrating the effectiveness of ES-MDA as a tool for calibrating temperature models, supporting high-resolution external constraints. The resulting posterior model describes the thermal state in the uppermost 10 km of the Netherlands with a horizontal resolution of 1 km, a vertical resolution of 200 m, and an overall RMS misfit of 0.7 °C. The thermal state of the deep subsurface is important for geothermal exploration that targets the deeply buried Devonian-Carboniferous carbonate formations in the Netherlands. These reservoirs are potentially suitable for industrial heating applications and electricity production. To this end, one of the main aspects of this study was to incorporate the thermal effect of hydrothermal convection within the Dinantian carbonate platforms, following the example found in the Luttelgeest-01 (LTG-01) well. Our model reveals areas in the Netherlands with potential for convection in these carbonate platforms, highlighting locations that can be suitable for deep geothermal development.

中文翻译：

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基于温度数据反演的荷兰地下更新地热模型

摘要 地下温度是地热能开发的关键参数之一。使用温度数据校准的基于物理的温度模型与深层地热勘探尤其相关。我们展示了荷兰陆上更新的高分辨率 3D 热模型。我们分 7 个步骤构建模型，从岩石圈尺度、基于物理的正向模型开始，并使用温度数据逐步详细说明和更新它。该模型由 14 个沉积层和上地壳、下地壳和岩石圈地幔层组成。我们为每一层分配了先验热属性，并通过具有多重数据同化的集成平滑器 (ES-MDA) 的反演程序更新它们，使用 1507 次温度测量作为观察结果。通过数据同化程序显着减少了先前模型的失配，证明了 ES-MDA 作为校准温度模型的工具的有效性，支持高分辨率外部约束。由此产生的后验模型描述了荷兰最上方 10 公里处的热状态，水平分辨率为 1 公里，垂直分辨率为 200 米，整体 RMS 失配为 0.7 °C。深层地下的热状态对于以荷兰深埋泥盆纪-石炭纪碳酸盐岩地层为目标的地热勘探很重要。这些水库可能适用于工业加热应用和电力生产。为此，本研究的主要方面之一是按照在 Luttelgeest-01 (LTG-01) 井中发现的例子，将热液对流的热效应纳入 Dinantian 碳酸盐平台内。我们的模型揭示了荷兰在这些碳酸盐平台中具有对流潜力的区域，突出显示了适合深层地热开发的位置。