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Evaluation of the Influence of Occurrence Time of Drought on the Annual Yield of Rain-Fed Winter Wheat Using Backward Multiple Generalized Estimation Equation
Water Resources Management ( IF 4.3 ) Pub Date : 2020-06-07 , DOI: 10.1007/s11269-020-02590-9
Abdol Rassoul Zarei , Ali Shabani , Mohammad Reza Mahmoudi

Rain-fed agriculture, which is highly dependent on rainfall, is one of various types of farming method. Therefore, the occurrence of drought can play a significant role in the yields of rain-fed plants. Therefore, the present study tries to examine the most important effective time period on the changes of the annual yield of rain-fed winter wheat (AY) under the influence of drought changes by using the correlation between calculated SPEI drought index in different time scales and simulated AY using AquaCrop model based on Backward Multiple Generalized Estimation Equation (BMGEE) method in the north-west of Iran. In this study, climatic data of 8 synoptic stations from 1967 to 2016 were used to calculate SPEI indices and AY values. According to the results, at Arak station time period from Jan to Mar (with |B| coefficient equal to 0.688), at Babolsar station time period from Nov to Jan (with |B| coefficient equal to 3.747), at Ghazvin, Ramsar and Rasht stations time period from Mar to May (with |B| coefficients equal to 1.155, 1.35 and 2.185, respectively), at Zanjan and Tabriz stations time period from Apr to Jun (with |B| coefficients equal to 0.249 and 1.33, respectively) and at Tehran station time period from Feb to July (with |B| coefficient equal to 4.018) were the most important effective time periods on the changes of AY under the influence of drought changes. It seems steam extension and heading growth stages of rain-fed winter wheat are the most sensitive stages of plant growth to drought occurrence.



中文翻译:

用倒向多元广义估计方程评估干旱发生时间对旱作冬小麦年产量的影响

高度依赖降雨的雨养农业是多种耕作方法之一。因此,干旱的发生可以在雨养植物的产量中发挥重要作用。因此,本研究试图通过利用不同时间尺度下计算出的SPEI干旱指数与干旱之间的相关性,研究干旱影响下雨养冬小麦(AY)年产量变化的最重要有效时间段。在伊朗西北部,使用基于向后多重广义估计方程(BMGEE)方法的AquaCrop模型模拟AY。在这项研究中,使用了1967年至2016年间8个天气站的气候数据来计算SPEI指数和AY值。根据结果​​,在Arak站从1月到3月的时间段(带有| B| 系数等于0.688),在从11至1月(与巴博勒萨尔站的时间段||系数等于3.747),在从3至5月(与加兹温,湿地和拉什特站的时间段||系数等于1.155,1.35分别在Zanjan和Tabriz站的时间段从4月到6月(| B |系数分别等于0.249和1.33)和在德黑兰站的时间段从2月到7月(| B |系数等于4.018) )是干旱变化影响下AY变化最重要的有效时间段。雨养冬小麦的蒸汽扩展和抽穗期似乎是植物生长对干旱最敏感的阶段。

更新日期:2020-06-07
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