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Hydrological drought indexing approach in response to climate and anthropogenic activities
Theoretical and Applied Climatology ( IF 3.4 ) Pub Date : 2020-06-07 , DOI: 10.1007/s00704-020-03227-y
Waseem Muhammad , Shahid Muhammad , Noor Muhammad Khan , Chen Si

A revisited hydrological drought analysis is necessary for a human-modified period where human activities in addition to natural processes can influence runoff. Hence, a new drought indexing approach (NDIA) is proposed for indexing hydrological drought in response to climatic and anthropogenic contributions. The NDIA involves three main components, namely, trend and change-point analysis, the estimation of runoff variability induced by climate and human activities, and indexing steps. The current study showed that during the study period (1983–2012), with a change point in approximately 1997–1998, 3.16% and 0.93% decreases in the annual average runoff and precipitation, respectively, with an insignificant increase in potential evapotranspiration, were observed from period 1 (1983–1997) to period 2 (1998–2012). The hydrological analysis showed that climatic and land use changes contributed 69.4% and 30.6%, respectively, to mean runoff variability, which indicated the need to consider human contributions in drought analysis during the disturbed period (1998–2012). Hence, using the proposed hydrological drought indexing process in the disturbed period, human-induced drought (HID) and climate-induced drought (CID) were individually estimated. The analysis showed that the duration of HID was less than that of CID, but the number of events was high. The findings were also cross-compared with basin development information and land use classification using a geographic information system (GIS), and this cross-comparison confirmed human intervention during the disturbed period. Based on the overall results, it was concluded that anthropogenic intrusions altered the hydrological time series and instigated or alleviated drought events in the Anthropocene.



中文翻译:

针对气候和人为活动的水文干旱指数化方法

对于人为修改的时期,必须进行重新的水文干旱分析,在该时期中,除自然过程外的人类活动都可能影响径流。因此,提出了一种新的干旱指数编制方法(NDIA),以响应气候和人为因素为水文干旱编制索引。NDIA包括三个主要组成部分,即趋势和变化点分析,气候和人类活动引起的径流变异性估计以及索引步骤。当前的研究表明,在研究期间(1983-2012年),变化点大约在1997-1998年,年平均径流量和降水量分别减少了3.16%和0.93%,而潜在蒸散量却没有明显增加。从第1阶段(1983-1997)到第2阶段(1998-2012)进行观测。水文分析表明,气候和土地利用变化分别贡献了69.4%和30.6%的平均径流变异性,这表明需要在扰动期(1998-2012年)中考虑人类在干旱分析中的贡献。因此,使用提议的扰动期水文干旱指数化过程,分别估算了人为干旱(HID)和气候引起的干旱(CID)。分析表明,HID的持续时间少于CID,但是事件数量很多。研究结果还与流域开发信息和使用地理信息系统(GIS)进行的土地利用分类进行了交叉比较,这种交叉比较证实了在受干扰时期内的人为干预。根据整体结果,

更新日期:2020-06-07
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