ABSTRACT

We formulate a deterministic epidemic model for the spread of Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19). We have included asymptomatic, quarantine and isolation compartments in the model, as studies have stressed upon the importance of these population groups on the transmission of the disease. We calculate the basic reproduction number $R_0$ and show that for $R_0<1$ the disease dies out and for $R_0>1$ the disease is endemic. Using sensitivity analysis we establish that $R_0$ is most sensitive to the rate of quarantine and isolation and that a high level of quarantine needs to be maintained as well as isolation to control the disease. Based on this we devise optimal quarantine and isolation strategies, noting that high levels need to be maintained during the early stages of the outbreak. Using data from the Wuhan outbreak, which has nearly run its course we estimate that $R_0=1.87$ which while in agreement with other estimates in the literature is on the lower side.

摘要

我们为冠状病毒疾病（COVID-19）的传播制定了确定性的流行病模型。由于研究强调了这些人群对疾病传播的重要性，因此我们在模型中包括了无症状，隔离区和隔离区。我们计算基本繁殖数${\mathrm{[R}}_0$ 并证明 ${\mathrm{[R}}_0<\mathrm{1个}$ 疾病消退了 ${\mathrm{[R}}_0>\mathrm{1个}$该病是地方病。通过敏感性分析，我们确定${\mathrm{[R}}_0$对隔离和隔离的速度最敏感，需要保持较高的隔离水平，以控制疾病。在此基础上，我们设计了最佳的隔离和隔离策略，并指出在爆发的早期阶段需要保持较高的隔离水平。利用武汉疫情的数据，武汉疫情几乎已经过去了，我们估计${\mathrm{[R}}_0=1.87$ 与文献中的其他估计一致的是较低的一面。