In this study, a storm surge model of the semi-enclosed Tokyo Bay was constructed to investigate its hydrodynamic response to major typhoon parameters, such as the point of landfall, approach angle, forward speed, size, and intensity. The typhoon simulation was validated for Typhoon Lan in 2017, and 31 hypothetical storm surge scenarios were generated to establish the sensitivity of peak surge height to the variation in typhoon parameters. The maximum storm surge height in the upper bay adjacent to the Tokyo Metropolitan Area was found to be highly sensitive to the forward speed and size of the passing typhoon. However, the importance of these parameters in disaster risk reduction has been largely overlooked by researchers and disaster managers. It was also determined that of the many hypothetical typhoon tracks evaluated, the slow passage of a large and intense typhoon transiting parallel to the longitudinal axis of Tokyo Bay, making landfall 25 km southwest, is most likely to cause a hazardous storm surge scenario in the upper-bay area. The results of this study are expected to be useful to disaster managers for advanced preparation against destructive storm surges.

在本研究中，构建了半封闭东京湾的风暴潮模型，以研究其对主要台风参数（如着陆点，进近角，前进速度，大小和强度）的水动力响应。2017年对台风Lan进行了台风模拟验证，并生成了31种假设的风暴潮情景，以建立峰值潮高对台风参数变化的敏感性。发现与东京都会区相邻的上海湾的最大风暴潮高度对经过的台风的前进速度和大小高度敏感。但是，这些参数在减少灾害风险中的重要性已被研究人员和灾难管理人员广泛忽略。还确定了在评估的许多假想台风轨道中，平行于东京湾纵轴的大强度强台风缓慢通过，导致登陆西南25公里，最有可能在上湾区造成危险的风暴潮。预期该研究的结果将对灾难管理人员进行针对灾难性风暴潮的提前准备有用。