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Impact of Model Resolution and Initial/Boundary Conditions in Forecasting Flood-Causing Precipitations
Atmosphere ( IF 2.9 ) Pub Date : 2020-06-04 , DOI: 10.3390/atmos11060592
Francesco Ferrari , Federico Cassola , Peter Enos Tuju , Alessandro Stocchino , Paolo Brotto , Andrea Mazzino

In late summer and autumn Mediterranean coastal regions are quite regularly affected by small-scale, flood-producing convective systems. The complexity of mesoscale triggering mechanisms, related to low-level temperature gradients, moisture convergence, and topographic effects contributes to limit the predictability of such phenomena. In the present work, a severe convection episode associated to a flash flood occurred in Cannes (southern France) in October 2015, is investigated by means of numerical simulations with a state-of-the-art nonhydrostatic mesoscale model. In the modelling configuration operational at the University of Genoa precipitation maxima were underestimated and misplaced. The impact of model resolution as well as initial and boundary conditions on the quantitative precipitation forecasts is analyzed and discussed. In particular, the effect of ingesting a high-resolution satellite-derived sea surface temperature field is proven to be beneficial in terms of precipitation intensity and localization, especially when also associated with the most accurate lateral boundary conditions.

中文翻译:

模型分辨率和初始/边界条件对洪水预报的影响

在夏末和秋季,地中海沿岸地区经常受到小型,产生洪水的对流系统的影响。中尺度触发机制的复杂性,与低水平的温度梯度,湿度收敛和地形效应有关,会限制此类现象的可预测性。在目前的工作中,2015年10月在戛纳(法国南部)发生的与山洪暴发相关的严重对流事件,是通过使用最新的非静水中尺度模型进行的数值模拟进行研究的。在热那亚大学操作的模型配置中,最大降水量被低估了并且放错了位置。分析和讨论了模型分辨率以及初始和边界条件对定量降水预报的影响。尤其是,
更新日期:2020-06-04
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