A case study was conducted on a metal mine operating in Kazakhstan, in which problems were associated with use of a complicated and outdated ventilation system and its high expenses. The mine needs to reconsider its existing ventilation system and identify the risks associated with operational losses when using this ventilation system. The aim of this study was to develop an efficient risk analysis method capable of estimating operational risks and financial benefits of the existing mine ventilation system. The developed risk analysis method considers ventilation modelling, risk modelling, and financial modelling. Ventilation modelling comprises ventilation simulation and ventilation financial simulation. In risk modelling, the number of risk events occurring with the use of existing ventilation system and the operational losses during these events is estimated. Financial modelling considers operational losses and ventilation financial simulation benefits and uses a dynamic cash flow model to estimate how cost variability influences the cash flow. As a result, the improved ventilation system attains an additional NPV a ranging from 3.2 to 8.5 million US$ at the corresponding defined probability of 90%. The results of this study reveal that the developed risk analysis method can efficiently estimate the financial benefits of ventilation modelling and consider risk events and their total operational losses associated with use of the existing ventilation system. This approach provides a range of possible outcomes and helps with deciding whether the ventilation system is appropriate or whether it should be updated to better suit the project financial benefits.

中文翻译：

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一种估算现有矿井通风系统财务收益的风险分析方法

对哈萨克斯坦的一家金属矿山进行了案例研究，其中问题与使用复杂和过时的通风系统及其高昂的费用有关。矿山需要重新考虑其现有的通风系统，并确定使用该通风系统时与运营损失相关的风险。本研究的目的是开发一种有效的风险分析方法，能够估计现有矿井通风系统的操作风险和财务收益。开发的风险分析方法考虑了通风建模、风险建模和财务建模。通风建模包括通风模拟和通风财务模拟。在风险建模中，估计使用现有通风系统发生的风险事件的数量以及这些事件期间的运营损失。财务建模考虑了运营损失和通风财务模拟收益，并使用动态现金流模型来估计成本可变性如何影响现金流。因此，改进后的通风系统以 90% 的相应定义概率获得了 3.2 至 850 万美元的额外 NPV。这项研究的结果表明，开发的风险分析方法可以有效地估计通风建模的财务收益，并考虑风险事件及其与使用现有通风系统相关的总运营损失。