A computational model based on game theory is here proposed to forecast the prevalence of depression caused by frustration in a competitive environment. This model comprises a spatially structured game, in which the individuals are socially connected. This game, which is equivalent to the well-known prisoner’s dilemma, represents the payoffs that can be received by the individuals in the labor market. These individuals may or may not have invested in a formal academic education. It is assumed that an individual becomes depressed when the difference between the average payoff earned by the neighbors in this game and the personal payoff surpasses a critical number, which can be distinct for men and women. Thus, the transition to depression depends on two thresholds, whose values are tuned for the model accurately predicting the percentage of individuals that become depressed due to a frustrating payoff. Here, this tuning is performed by using data of young adults living in the United Kingdom in 2014-2016.

中文翻译：

---

基于博弈论的模型来预测竞争环境中的挫败感。

本文提出了一种基于博弈论的计算模型，以预测在竞争环境中挫折感导致的抑郁症患病率。该模型包括一个空间结构的游戏，其中个体在社交上是相互联系的。这场比赛等同于众所周知的囚徒困境，代表了劳动力市场上个人可以获得的收益。这些人可能已或未曾投资过正规的学术教育。假设当邻居在此游戏中获得的平均收益与个人收益之间的差异超过一个临界值时，个体会变得沮丧，这对于男女而言可能是不同的。因此，向抑郁的转变取决于两个阈值，其值针对模型进行了调整，可以准确地预测由于令人沮丧的回报而变得沮丧的个人所占的百分比。在此，此调整是通过使用2014-2016年居住在英国的年轻人的数据进行的。