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Global supply-chain effects of COVID-19 control measures.
Nature Human Behaviour ( IF 29.9 ) Pub Date : 2020-06-03 , DOI: 10.1038/s41562-020-0896-8
Dabo Guan 1, 2 , Daoping Wang 3 , Stephane Hallegatte 4 , Steven J Davis 5 , Jingwen Huo 1 , Shuping Li 6 , Yangchun Bai 6 , Tianyang Lei 1 , Qianyu Xue 6 , D'Maris Coffman 2 , Danyang Cheng 1 , Peipei Chen 7 , Xi Liang 8 , Bing Xu 1, 9 , Xiaosheng Lu 10 , Shouyang Wang 11 , Klaus Hubacek 12 , Peng Gong 1, 9
Affiliation  

Countries have sought to stop the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) by severely restricting travel and in-person commercial activities. Here, we analyse the supply-chain effects of a set of idealized lockdown scenarios, using the latest global trade modelling framework. We find that supply-chain losses that are related to initial COVID-19 lockdowns are largely dependent on the number of countries imposing restrictions and that losses are more sensitive to the duration of a lockdown than its strictness. However, a longer containment that can eradicate the disease imposes a smaller loss than shorter ones. Earlier, stricter and shorter lockdowns can minimize overall losses. A ‘go-slow’ approach to lifting restrictions may reduce overall damages if it avoids the need for further lockdowns. Regardless of the strategy, the complexity of global supply chains will magnify losses beyond the direct effects of COVID-19. Thus, pandemic control is a public good that requires collective efforts and support to lower-capacity countries.



中文翻译:

COVID-19控制措施的全球供应链影响。

各国已通过严格限制旅行和亲自进行商业活动来制止2019年冠状病毒病(COVID-19)的传播。在这里,我们使用最新的全球贸易建模框架来分析一组理想的锁定方案的供应链效应。我们发现,与最初的COVID-19锁定有关的供应链损失在很大程度上取决于实施限制的国家/地区,并且损失对锁定的持续时间比严格程度更为敏感。但是,可以消灭这种疾病的更长的收容所造成的损失要比较短的收容所造成的损失小。更早,更严格和更短的锁定可以最大程度地减少总体损失。如果采取“缓慢行动”的方式解除限制,则可以避免进一步的锁定,从而减少总体损失。不管采取什么策略 全球供应链的复杂性将扩大损失,超出COVID-19的直接影响。因此,大流行控制是一项公共产品,需要集体努力和对能力较低的国家的支持。

更新日期:2020-06-03
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