Rising temperatures caused by climate change are likely to affect cool‐water and warm‐water fishes differently. Yet, forecasts of anticipated temperature effects on fishes of different thermal guilds are lacking, especially in freshwater ecosystems. Towards this end, we used spatially explicit, growth rate potential (GRP) models to project changes in seasonal habitat quality for a warm‐water piscivore (largemouth bass Micropterus salmoides), a cool‐water piscivore (walleye Sander vitreus) and a hybrid piscivore (saugeye S. vitreus × S. canadensis) in two Midwestern reservoirs. We assessed habitat quality for two periods (early and middle 21st century) under two realistic greenhouse gas emission scenarios (a mid‐century emissions peak and a rapid continuous increase in emissions). Largemouth bass were projected to experience enhanced or slightly reduced habitat during all seasons, and throughout the mid‐21st century. By contrast, walleye habitat was projected to decline with anticipated warming, except during the spring in the smaller of our two study reservoirs and during the fall in the larger of our two study reservoirs. Saugeye habitat was projected to either increase modestly or decline slightly during the spring and fall and declines in habitat quality and quantity that were smaller than those for walleye were identified during summer. Collectively, our findings indicate that climate warming will differentially alter habitat suitability for reservoir piscivores, favouring warm‐water species over cool‐water species. We expect these changes in habitat quality to impact the dynamics of reservoir fish populations to varying degrees necessitating the consideration of climate when making future management decisions.

中文翻译：

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预测变暖条件下中西部三种水库鱼类的未来栖息地质量

由气候变化引起的温度升高可能对冷水鱼和温水鱼产生不同的影响。但是，缺乏对不同温度行会的鱼类预期温度影响的预测，尤其是在淡水生态系统中。为此，我们使用空间显式的增长率潜力（GRP）模型来预测温水食肉动物（大嘴鲈Micropterus salmoides），冷水食肉动物（角膜桑德氏玻璃体）和杂食食肉动物的季节性栖息地质量变化。（saugeye S. vitreus  × 加拿大一枝黄花）在两个中西部水库中。我们在两种现实的温室气体排放情景（本世纪中叶的排放高峰和排放量的持续快速增长）下评估了两个时期（21世纪初和21世纪中叶）的栖息地质量。预计在所有季节以及整个21世纪中叶，大嘴鲈鱼的栖息地都会有所增加或略有减少。相比之下，预计角膜猴栖息地会随着预期的变暖而减少，除了春季期间，两个研究水库中较小的一个，以及秋季两个研究水库中较大的一个。预计在春季和秋季，Saugeye生境将适度增加或略有下降，并且在夏季发现生境质量和数量的下降幅度要小于大眼犬。总的来说，我们的发现表明，气候变暖将有差别地改变水库食肉动物的栖息地适宜性，与温水物种相比，偏爱温水物种。我们预计栖息地质量的这些变化会在不同程度上影响水库鱼种群的动态，因此在制定未来的管理决策时必须考虑气候。