The building energy behavior is strongly influenced by design choices made to contain energy losses through the envelope and to maximize the overall efficiency of HVAC systems. However, a thorough assessment of energy efficiency measures in relation to weather conditions is necessary. Ongoing climate change requires that design choices be also assessed in relation to projections of their future state.

In this paper, the heating performance of real-world energy self-sufficient building, located in L’Aquila (Italy), is analyzed via calibrated EnergyPlus model. Different interventions are hypothesized for the HVAC system (biomass boiler, air handling unit, condensing gas boiler, air-to-water heat pump, their combinations) and effects are tested in relation to climate zone, by four Italian (L’Aquila, Rome, Palermo, Milan) and two European (Madrid, London) cities, and considering climate change to 2050 and 2080 for the city of L’Aquila.

Results showed how heating system is influenced by weather conditions and what are the best choices in relation to them, ranging from 3.0 kWhm⁻²yr⁻¹, achieved with combination of condensing gas boiler and air handling unit, to 54.2 kW hm⁻²yr⁻¹, obtained with air-to-water heat pump. Finally, future climate change has highlighted significant reductions in heating energy demand between −8.5 % (2050) and −44.8 % (2080).

建筑的能耗行为受到设计选择的强烈影响，这些选择是为了控制通过围护结构的能量损失并使HVAC系统的整体效率最大化。但是，有必要对与天气状况相关的能效措施进行全面评估。持续的气候变化要求还应根据其未来状态的预测来评估设计选择。

本文通过校准的EnergyPlus模型分析了位于意大利拉奎拉（L'Aquila）的真实能源自给自足建筑的采暖性能。假设对HVAC系统采取了不同的干预措施（生物质锅炉，空气处理机组，冷凝式燃气锅炉，空气-水热泵及其组合），并通过四个意大利人（拉奎拉，罗马）对气候区的影响进行了测试。 ，巴勒莫，米兰）和两个欧洲城市（马德里，伦敦），并考虑拉奎拉市到2050年和2080年的气候变化。

结果表明供暖系统如何受到天气条件的影响，以及与之相关的最佳选择是什么，从冷凝式燃气锅炉和空气处理机组的组合所实现的3.0 kWhm ^-2 yr ^-1到54.2 kW hm ^-2 yr ^-1是通过空气-水热泵获得的。最后，未来的气候变化突出表明，供暖能源需求将显着减少-8.5％（2050）至-44.8％（2080）。