Changes in the long-term (1948–2016) rainfall and evapotranspiration over Mpologoma catchment were analysed using gridded (0.25° × 0.25°) Princeton Global Forcing data. Trend and variability were assessed using a nonparametric approach based on the cumulative sum of the difference between exceedance and nonexceedance counts of data. Annual and March-May (MAM) rainfall displayed a positive trend (), whereas October-December (OND) and June-September rainfall exhibited negative trends with and , respectively. Positive subtrends in rainfall occurred in the 1950s and from the mid-2000s till 2016; however, negative subtrends existed between 1960 till around 2005. Seasonal evapotranspiration exhibited a positive trend (). For the entire period (1948–2016), there was no negative subtrend in the OND and MAM evapotranspiration. Rainfall and evapotranspiration trends and oscillatory variation in subtrends over multidecadal time scales indicate the need for careful planning of predictive adaptation to the impacts of climate variability on environmental applications which depend on water balance in the Mpologoma catchment. It is recommended that future studies quantify possible contributions of human factors on the variability of rainfall and evapotranspiration. Furthermore, climate change impacts on rainfall and evapotranspiration across the study area should be investigated.

中文翻译：

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乌干达口鼻癌流域的历史降雨和蒸散变化

使用格网（0.25°×0.25°）普林斯顿全球强迫数据分析了长期（1948–2016年）降雨在多发性果树集水区的变化。使用非参数方法，根据数据的超标与非超标计数之差的累积总和来评估趋势和可变性。年和3月至5月（MAM）降雨呈正趋势（），而10月至12月（OND）和6月至9月的降雨量呈现负趋势， 和 ，分别。1950年代和2000年代中期至2016年，降雨出现了积极的下降趋势。但是，在1960年至2005年之间存在负的次趋势。季节性蒸散表现出积极的趋势（）。在整个时期（1948年至2016年），OND和MAM蒸散量没有负向下降趋势。在数十年的时间尺度上，降雨和蒸散趋势以及次趋势的振荡变化表明，需要仔细规划对气候变化对环境的影响的预测性适应，该影响取决于在Mpologoma流域的水平衡。建议未来的研究量化人为因素对降雨和蒸散量变化的可能贡献。此外，应研究气候变化对整个研究区域的降雨和蒸散量的影响。