ABSTRACT

Emerging mobility services are being increasingly regulated, with several cities testing car-lite policy interventions in pilot study areas before a metro-wide implementation. This study uses an agent-based LUTI microsimulation model to examine the effect of accessibility improvements on private mobility holdings, both directly and through the mediating effect of housing choice. Different market responses to acar-lite pilot are modeled through various assumptions of changes in model parameters. Three study areas with different characteristics are chosen to explore the spatial variation in policy effects. Our findings indicate that in-movers are more likely to be higher-income households with a comparatively higher car ownership rate. Unintended negative consequences like gentrification can significantly undermine the potential boosts to vehicle-free behavior inside the study area. As a possible step to mitigate such consequences, we suggest that emerging mobility regulation strategies anticipate and address the likely response of the housing market and urban redevelopment opportunities.

摘要

新兴的移动服务受到越来越多的监管，一些城市在试点研究区域测试少车政策干预措施，然后再在整个地铁范围内实施。本研究使用基于代理的 LUTI 微观模拟模型来检验可访问性改进对私人出行持有量的影响，包括直接和通过住房选择的中介效应。通过模型参数变化的各种假设来模拟对 acar-lite 试点的不同市场反应。选择三个具有不同特征的研究区域来探索政策效应的空间变化。我们的研究结果表明，搬家者更有可能是拥有相对较高汽车拥有率的高收入家庭。高档化等意想不到的负面后果会严重破坏研究区域内无车行为的潜在推动力。作为减轻此类后果的一个可能步骤，我们建议新兴的流动性监管策略预测并解决住房市场和城市重建机会的可能反应。