This paper presents a novel method for the development of an optimal water supply plan showcased using data from the Gamasiab basin, located in Kermanshah province, Iran, concerning new dams that are being constructed in this semi‐arid region. In this paper, a new group multi‐criteria decision‐making (MCDM) plan is proposed by combining two MCDM methods based on the fuzzy Delphi and fuzzy ELECTRE III methods that convert the experts' opinions to triangular fuzzy numbers based on the level of uncertainty associated with various quantitative and qualitative criteria. Considering the opinions of four non‐stakeholder experts and data analysis using the fuzzy Delphi method, the criteria were evaluated. Then, by analysing the results using the fuzzy ELECTRE III method, the final ranking of scenarios is obtained. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to assess the effect of uncertainty on the performance of the decision‐making system in scenarios ranking. The total expense, flood control, reservoir capacity and diversion and water transfer played a significant role in selecting the optimal scenario. Additionally, a hydrologic model was developed to evaluate the performance of the optimal scenario in terms of qualitative criteria. The data indicated that there was a good agreement between the results obtained from the hydrological model and the scenario ranking by the employed method. Altogether, a comparison of the proposed method with other MCDM methods, including fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy technique for order preference by simulation of ideal solution, indicated that the results of the employed method matched more closely to the local experts' opinion.

中文翻译：

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运用综合模糊德尔菲法和模糊电子ECTR III方法制定最优供水计划—以加马西亚布盆地为例

本文介绍了一种用于制定最佳供水计划的新颖方法，该方法使用了位于伊朗克曼沙赫省的Gamasiab盆地的数据进行了展示，涉及该半干旱地区正在兴建的新水坝。本文提出了一种新的群体多标准决策（MCDM）计划，该方法将两种基于模糊Delphi的MCDM方法和基于不确定性水平将专家意见转换为三角模糊数的模糊ELECTRE III方法相结合与各种定量和定性标准相关联。考虑了四位非利益相关方专家的意见以及使用模糊德尔菲方法进行的数据分析，对标准进行了评估。然后，通过使用模糊ELECTRE III方法分析结果，获得方案的最终排名。进行了敏感性分析，以评估情景排序中不确定性对决策系统性能的影响。在选择最佳方案时，总费用，防洪，水库容量以及引水和调水起着重要作用。此外，开发了水文模型，以定性标准评估最佳方案的性能。数据表明，从水文模型获得的结果与采用的方法进行的情景排序之间有很好的一致性。总体而言，该方法与其他MCDM方法进行了比较，包括模糊分析层次过程和通过仿真理想解而进行的顺序偏好模糊技术，