Abstract

A new generalization of Northwest Caucasus seismic hazard data is presented taking into account the influence of paleoseismological studies on the seismic hazard level. An attempt has been made to use data on paleoearthquakes for direct seismic hazard assessment by comparing, in accordance with the recurrence law, the magnitude of a strong earthquake with the estimated number of weak seismic events. A fundamentally new seismotectonic base (map of possible earthquakes source (PES) zones) has been prepared for compiling detailed seismic hazard maps of the region. Based on the map of PES zones, seismic impacts are calculated on a probabilistic basis. On the compiled maps, the northwestern and central segments of the Greater Caucasus look like a seismic hazardous area, where the level of seismic effects reaches 8.5 points on maps A and B. At the same time, compared to data from GSZ-97 maps, the results look more differentiated and overall appreciable decrease the level of seismic hazard in the region. The work is important from a methodological aspect in light of seismic risk management of this densely populated and actively developed Russian territory.

中文翻译：

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考虑到古地震学结果的西北高加索地区详细地震区划的实践

摘要

考虑到古地震学研究对地震危险性水平的影响，提出了西北高加索地震危险性数据的新概括。尝试通过根据复发规律将强地震的震级与估计的弱地震事件数量进行比较，将古地震数据用于直接地震危险评估。已经准备了一个根本上新的地震构造基础（可能的地震源（PES）区域图），以编制该地区的详细地震灾害图。根据PES区域图，以概率为基础计算地震影响。在已编译的地图上，大高加索地区的西北和中部看上去像地震危险区，在地震危险级别中，地图A和B达到8.5点。同时，与GSZ-97地图中的数据相比，结果看起来更具差异性，总体上可观地降低了该地区的地震危险程度。从这个人口稠密且活跃发展的俄罗斯领土的地震风险管理的角度来看，这项工作非常重要。