Abstract

Algeria shares similarities with other countries of the world facing destructive floods. The need to understand changes in the intensity, frequency and severity of floods is critical for reducing significant social, economic, and environmental implications. In this study, flood indicators derived from annual maximum series and peak over threshold series were analyzed using Mann−Kendall trend analysis and linear regression analysis. Several studies in northern Algeria found decreasing trends of annual precipitation. However, precipitation could not explain most flood indicator trends found in our study. A general decreasing annual and seasonal trends of flood indicators were detected in the wadi Cheliff Basin. This result is partly due to decreasing precipitation and partly due to the construction of dams which have significantly altered flood processes. Increasing trends were found in the Mina Basin, which could be explained as the result of increases in urban area and decrease in soil moisture content before the occurrence of floods. Conversely, there was no dependency demonstrated between significant changes and spatial scales for these flood indicators. That is to say, human impacts and climate variability likely constitute the main factors causing increasing or decreasing flood trends.

中文翻译：

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阿尔及利亚切尔夫盆地半干旱气候下人类活动对洪水趋势的影响

摘要

阿尔及利亚与面临破坏性洪水的世界其他国家有着相似之处。了解洪水的强度，频率和严重性的变化对于减少重大的社会，经济和环境影响至关重要。在这项研究中，使用Mann-Kendall趋势分析和线性回归分析对源自年度最大序列和峰值超过阈值序列的洪水指标进行了分析。阿尔及利亚北部的几项研究发现年降水量呈下降趋势。但是，降水无法解释我们研究中发现的大多数洪水指标趋势。在瓦迪切利夫盆地，洪水指标的年度和季节趋势总体呈下降趋势。该结果部分归因于降水减少，部分归因于水坝的建造，这些水坝大大改变了洪水过程。在米纳盆地发现增加的趋势，这可以解释为洪水发生之前城市面积增加和土壤水分含量降低的结果。相反，这些洪水指标在重大变化和空间尺度之间没有依赖性。也就是说，人为影响和气候多变性可能是导致洪水趋势增加或减少的主要因素。这些洪水指标的显着变化与空间尺度之间没有依赖性。也就是说，人为影响和气候多变性可能是导致洪水趋势增加或减少的主要因素。这些洪水指标的显着变化与空间尺度之间没有依赖性。也就是说，人为影响和气候多变性可能是导致洪水趋势增加或减少的主要因素。