As climate and land-use changes threatens biodiversity, the identification of refugia areas for species becomes a crucial strategy in conservation planning. Here, we integrate climate change anomaly with a land-use change model both projected for 2050 to identify refugia areas for 103 bird species that occur in the Brazilian Cerrado. We found that 13% of the Cerrado may serve as refugia for the bird species. In contrast, nearly 35% of the biome might become areas of high risk for those species. Most species (74%) will held from 34% to 85% of their current geographic distribution in areas with less native vegetation, but with low climate anomaly. Apart from the protection of the refugia areas, we suggest restoration of native vegetation in regions that are likely to maintain climate conditions more adequate in the future. These areas should be prioritized to protect places with higher species richness and ease the establishment of corridors that would support climate-induced dispersal from high risk areas to suitable ones. Approaches that allow for the identification and future protection of refugia are fundamental to guarantee the conservation of biodiversity faced with climate change and rapid land-use changes that already taking place.

随着气候和土地利用的变化威胁到生物多样性，为物种确定避难区成为保护规划中的关键战略。在这里，我们将气候变化异常与土地利用变化模型相结合，两者都计划在2050年进行，以识别巴西Cerrado地区103种鸟类的避难区。我们发现13％的塞拉多犬可能成为鸟类的避难所。相反，将近35％的生物群落可能成为这些物种的高风险地区。大多数物种（74％）将在其本地植被较少但气候异常较低的地区占其当前地理分布的34％至85％。除了保护避难所以外，我们建议在将来可能会保持气候条件更充分的地区恢复本地植被。应优先考虑这些区域，以保护物种丰富度较高的地方，并简化建立走廊的道路，以支持气候导致的从高风险地区向适当地区的扩散。能够识别和将来保护避难所的方法对于确保面对已经发生的气候变化和快速土地利用变化的生物多样性的保护至关重要。